The Moment of Decision: Will Lebanon Choose Peace?

The return of war to Lebanon was neither sudden nor unexpected. On the contrary, it appeared almost inevitable, a consequence of Hezbollah’s rigidity and denial on one hand, and the Lebanese state’s hesitation and accommodation on the other. It followed the trajectory of the political and security developments since the ceasefire that ended ...

Why Lebanon’s Muslims Are Key to Any Credible Peace Initiative

Lebanon once again stands on the brink of a military confrontation that threatens to replay the all-too-familiar scenes of devastation and loss. As regional tensions escalate and the prospect of a U.S. strike on Iran looms, Hezbollah appears ready to place Lebanon squarely in the eye of the storm in defense of the Iranian regime, with little ...

Wafiq Safa’s Exit: Internal Shake-Up or Political Pivot for Hezbollah?

Hezbollah has initiated a comprehensive restructuring of its military, security, and political apparatuses to consolidate its ranks after Israel’s military campaign caused severe disruptions, including the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and numerous top commanders. Officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ...

The Council of the South: Hezbollah and Amal’s Tool for Clientelism

The Council of the South was intended to be one of the Lebanese state’s key mechanisms for addressing the damage from wars with Israel, but it effectively became a partisan tool serving the Amal Movement and Hezbollah. It was established in 1970 primarily to help residents of southern Lebanon repair their homes and rebuild what had been ...

From Armed Deterrence to Durable Peace: Rethinking Shiite Security in Lebanon

Despite failing to instill ideological allegiance to Iran's Wilayat al-Faqih among Lebanon's Shia, Hezbollah has succeeded in forging a sense of collective belonging to Iran’s political project. The party achieved this more consequential outcome by recasting its weapons as a political doctrine and overarching identity, portrayed as superior to ...

The Unraveling of Hezbollah’s Strategic Myth

Since its inception, Hezbollah has sought to transform Shia identity in Lebanon from a national one into an ideological one, anchored in Iran’s Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine of absolute loyalty to its supreme leader. Yet its attempts to tighten control over the Shia community through Tehran’s political ideology met significant obstacles, pushing ...

What Iran’s Fate Could Mean for Hezbollah and Lebanon

As Iran’s nationwide protest movement intensifies, a key question is dominating regional and international discourse: what lies ahead for the Islamist regime if unrest continues, and how might its potential collapse impact Middle Eastern states shaped by four decades of Iranian policy? Since Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979, Iran has ...