Iran Sacrifices Lebanon on the Altar of Its Own Interests

The U.S. and Israel have entered a two-week ceasefire, an arrangement that paves the way for negotiations aimed at resolving a wide range of complex and contentious issues. Yet Lebanon, despite Iran’s rhetoric, appears to remain a marginal concern in the talks for Tehran, which has shown little care for the suffering of Lebanese Shia. Despite ...

How the Iran War Can Help Reorient Shia Identity

As the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran nears the limits of its original target bank, the contours of a new phase are beginning to emerge, one defined by the search for a political exit from the war. Discussions are no longer confined to closed-door deliberations but are now unfolding in public. Fundamental questions are emerging about ...

Hezbollah's Fallback Strategy as the Resistance Axis Unravels

Hezbollah is coming under immense pressure on all fronts. Its regional backer Iran stands on the threshold of a new political phase that points to a retreat from its regional strategy, with profound implications for Hezbollah in Lebanon. There, Israel is escalating its military efforts against Hezbollah, with the campaign likely to intensify ...

Lebanon Expels Iran’s Envoy, but the IRGC Still Looms Large

While Lebanese authorities’ decision to expel Iran’s envoy to the country marks a significant attempt to restore state sovereignty and redefine the bounds of ties between Tehran and Beirut, its practical impact on the ground remains limited. Beirut’s move comes amid an escalating war between Israel and Hezbollah that has underscored the ...

Breaking the Cycle: Lebanon, Israel, and the Case for a New Strategic Approach

Since Hezbollah plunged Lebanon into war, key questions have emerged about the country’s domestic future. Foremost among them: how will the Lebanese state address Hezbollah’s arsenal, and what will Israel pursue in its campaign against the group? In the months leading up to the new war, it became clear that the Lebanese state had not fully ...

After the War: Why Lebanon's Shia Must Be Freed from Tehran

Unlike the June 2025 conflict, the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign against the Iranian regime is poised to reshape the region, with significant consequences for Tehran’s proxies, foremost among them Hezbollah. The fates of Iran and Hezbollah have become defining questions of the regional war. Hezbollah did not hesitate to open a front ...

Is Israel Shifting from Containing Hezbollah to a Resolution in Lebanon?

A historical examination of Israel’s military campaigns in Lebanon against the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Hezbollah reveals striking parallels and key differences, while raising the question of whether Jerusalem is moving toward a more decisive strategy against Hezbollah. Israel has regarded both the PLO in the 1970s and 80s ...

Will This War End Hezbollah?

After Israel’s war against Hezbollah ended in November 2024, many expected the group’s losses—including the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah—to weaken its influence in Lebanon. Hopes rose that the Lebanese state could reclaim sovereignty and extend its control across the country. Yet subsequent developments revealed that these ...

The Moment of Decision: Will Lebanon Choose Peace?

The return of war to Lebanon was neither sudden nor unexpected. On the contrary, it appeared almost inevitable, a consequence of Hezbollah’s rigidity and denial on one hand, and the Lebanese state’s hesitation and accommodation on the other. It followed the trajectory of the political and security developments since the ceasefire that ended ...

Why Lebanon’s Muslims Are Key to Any Credible Peace Initiative

Lebanon once again stands on the brink of a military confrontation that threatens to replay the all-too-familiar scenes of devastation and loss. As regional tensions escalate and the prospect of a U.S. strike on Iran looms, Hezbollah appears ready to place Lebanon squarely in the eye of the storm in defense of the Iranian regime, with little ...

Wafiq Safa’s Exit: Internal Shake-Up or Political Pivot for Hezbollah?

Hezbollah has initiated a comprehensive restructuring of its military, security, and political apparatuses to consolidate its ranks after Israel’s military campaign caused severe disruptions, including the assassination of its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and numerous top commanders. Officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ...

The Council of the South: Hezbollah and Amal’s Tool for Clientelism

The Council of the South was intended to be one of the Lebanese state’s key mechanisms for addressing the damage from wars with Israel, but it effectively became a partisan tool serving the Amal Movement and Hezbollah. It was established in 1970 primarily to help residents of southern Lebanon repair their homes and rebuild what had been ...

From Armed Deterrence to Durable Peace: Rethinking Shiite Security in Lebanon

Despite failing to instill ideological allegiance to Iran's Wilayat al-Faqih among Lebanon's Shia, Hezbollah has succeeded in forging a sense of collective belonging to Iran’s political project. The party achieved this more consequential outcome by recasting its weapons as a political doctrine and overarching identity, portrayed as superior to ...

The Unraveling of Hezbollah’s Strategic Myth

Since its inception, Hezbollah has sought to transform Shia identity in Lebanon from a national one into an ideological one, anchored in Iran’s Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine of absolute loyalty to its supreme leader. Yet its attempts to tighten control over the Shia community through Tehran’s political ideology met significant obstacles, pushing ...

What Iran’s Fate Could Mean for Hezbollah and Lebanon

As Iran’s nationwide protest movement intensifies, a key question is dominating regional and international discourse: what lies ahead for the Islamist regime if unrest continues, and how might its potential collapse impact Middle Eastern states shaped by four decades of Iranian policy? Since Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979, Iran has ...