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Tehran’s brief statement reads: “Israel may be waiting a long time for Iran’s counteraction.” The regime’s staunch supporters see this as a shrewd strategic move to fray Israeli nerves, which they believe are consumed with worry. Yet, the more skeptical consider that Iran might delegate response to its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, among others, revealing the pragmatic approach adopted by Iranians.
In reality, risking its own infrastructure and economy is not even an option for Iran. But as for others, they’re expected to die as martyrs for the cause, and dying any other way is unacceptable. The Maronite patriarch learned this the hard way when he voiced his concern for the 110,000 refugees from southern Lebanon, only to be swiftly rebuked that “the refugees are heroes fighting for Jerusalem.” That being said, the matter was closed.
It’s noteworthy that the highest Christian authority in the Near East is continuously under attack. Meanwhile, Lebanese Christians, the last remaining in the region, are mired in self-destructive internal divisions and the personal ambitions of some of their leaders. In essence, both Lebanese and Palestinians are left as mere cannon fodder. The Persians have always had an often-ambiguous relationship with the Arabs they once ruled for a long time. Meanwhile, the war shows no signs of ending soon. With Joe Biden’s administration winding down, there’s little interest in crediting him with any regional peace efforts. The focus is now shifting to the next leader of the US — Trump or Harris.
The conflict is expected to alternate between high and low intensity until the investiture of the new US president in January 2025. In the meantime, populations are kindly requested to adapt to the tempo of the conflict, which may potentially extend to the West Bank.
The assassination of Khalil al-Maqdah, a Fatah official in Lebanon, conveys a dual warning. To the Palestinians in Lebanon’s camps: “Stay quiet, otherwise…” To the Palestinian Authority: “Control Hamas and other organizations in the West Bank, or face Gaza’s fate.”
Mahmoud Abbas, who aspired to visit Gaza, has shelved the idea, realizing it would yield no tangible outcomes. Meanwhile, the Iranians are tallying their gains while pretending to be the spearheads of the “resistance.”
At some point, someone needs to dare tell the Iranians: Gentlemen, do make the first move…
