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3. Israel Seeks To Defeat Hezbollah Again, What Might Be Different this Time?

Facing an increasingly deadly threat from Hezbollah’s first-person view (FPV) drones, Israel is back on the offensive in Lebanon. Since the night of May 25, the Israel Defense Forces have launched large-scale airstrikes across southern Lebanon while pressing ground advances. As Israel once again turns to military force, amid U.S.-Iran talks, the question is what might change this time.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on May 26 that a national effort was underway to counter Hezbollah’s fiber-optic FPV drones. He also vowed that “more was to come” against the militia amid intensifying fighting in southern Lebanon.

The threat posed by the drones has grown since Israel scaled back military operations in Lebanon following the April 17, 2026 ceasefire between Beirut and Jerusalem. In Israel, the reduction in military activity was widely perceived as linked to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns that it could tie the hands of the IDF. Hezbollah, for its part, seized the opportunity to experiment with new drone technology.

The IDF is returning to the offensive in Lebanon after a series of campaigns since Hezbollah opened a front against Israel following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks. Israel was cautious in the first year of this conflict, focusing instead on Gaza while evacuating residents from northern communities near the border with Lebanon. This essentially let Hezbollah dictate the tempo of the conflict.

In September 2024, Israel changed the equation of the conflict and launched a widescale military campaign against Hezbollah. The ensuing November 27, 2024 ceasefire reduced fighting while Hezbollah rebuilt its military capacities. The cycle of violence intensified on March 2, 2026, after Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. Now, Hezbollah and Israel are potentially back on a path toward a wider battle.

Israel faces many challenges in Lebanon today. The Trump administration is engaged in negotiations with Iran, which has called for a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon. Regional powers involved in this diplomatic track, including Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, are fine with pressuring Israel to end its fighting in Lebanon to help facilitate a deal with Iran. As such, the IDF may have a timetable imposed on its operations in Lebanon.

Israel’s current position in Lebanon differs significantly from the past, as nearly 1,000 days of war have brought about major shifts on the ground. The IDF, while it has advanced slowly, has forced the evacuation of dozens of Lebanese villages. The Israeli military has razed Shiite-populated villages near the border as part of a policy modeled on its Gaza campaign. This strategy aims to deny terrorists the ability to use homes and tunnels to attack Israel, a threat that is all too real.

When I visited northern Israeli communities along the Lebanese border in October 2023, I saw a van in Shtula that had been struck by a Hezbollah anti-tank guided missile. Houses on the Lebanese side of the border had direct line-of-sight into Israel. All Hezbollah had to do was hide in a building and launch a missile from a second-floor window.

In mid-May 2026, I was back along Israel’s northern border, this time in Rosh HaNikra. At the time, with Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon supposedly reducing fighting, some tourists returned to take in views of the beautiful Mediterranean from the heights near Rosh HaNikra. Days later, a Hezbollah FPV drone struck the area. This is how Hezbollah has changed the battlefield.

These fiber-optic guided drones cannot be jammed. Instead, the IDF has taken to improvising nets, as was done in Ukraine, to stop the explosive drones. As the IDF searches for a technological solution to this deadly challenge, the military’s new offensive in Lebanon is supposed to roll back the threat of Hezbollah. Netanyahu on May 26 briefed Israel’s security cabinet on these efforts.

"We are deepening our operation in Lebanon. The IDF is operating with large forces on the ground and seizing dominant terrain. We are fortifying the security zone to protect the communities of the north,” he said.

He had vowed the day before to put the proverbial pedal to the metal to crush Hezbollah. However, the Israeli public has heard these claims before, and Hezbollah’s threats have remained. What might change this time?

Hezbollah’s drone threats can be rolled back by pushing more deeply into Lebanon. However, Lebanon’s government will need to step up. On May 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio slammed Hezbollah’s defiance of Lebanese state authorities.

“Hezbollah has ignored repeated calls from the legitimate government of Lebanon to cease its attacks and respect a ceasefire,” Rubio said. He added that the militia’s recent attacks were part of a “deliberate campaign to destabilize the country and maintain its power at the expense of the future of the Lebanese people.”

It’s clear now that Hezbollah may be trying to goad Israel into a wider operation. This could dovetail with Hezbollah’s efforts to weaken the Lebanese government or possibly even try to overthrow it. At the same time, Hezbollah may seek to draw Israel into escalation in a bid to sabotage the U.S.-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks while portraying itself as “defending” Lebanon.

The IDF has so far been unable to eliminate Hezbollah through force. Airstrikes alone have not been enough to get rid of the militia. Years of fighting have made this clear. Can the U.S. and other stakeholders put forward a path for Lebanon to disarm the group? Such an effort could start with disarmament in specific geographic areas, with achievable goals that could be verified and certified. If a system of disarmament in one region of Lebanon could be shown to work, it could create incentives to apply the model elsewhere.

Hezbollah will likely look again to Iran for rescue, with Tehran pushing mediators to include Lebanon in any new regional deal. The group wants to preserve just enough firepower to be able to drag Israel into renewed fighting and sabotage any positive change in Beirut.