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3. The Hidden Costs of a U.S.-Iran Deal Involving Lebanon

Amid U.S. and Iranian efforts to forge an agreement to end their conflict, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sent a letter to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on May 23 pledging that Tehran would press for a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah quickly welcomed Iran’s determination to keep Lebanon within its sphere of influence.

The following day, Qassem delivered an inflammatory speech with stark political and security warnings. The Hezbollah leader declared that his group reserves the right to bring down the government through popular street mobilization. He also issued a veiled threat of violence against Hezbollah’s political opponents in Lebanon, saying the group would deal with them “as it deals with Israel.”

This is not the first time Hezbollah has resorted to domestic escalation amid signs of rapprochement between Washington and Tehran or in the aftermath of a military confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah gains a renewed sense of political strength from favorable diplomatic settlements, prompting it to adopt a more hardline approach toward Lebanese state institutions and its political opponents.

The party has consistently redirected its focus inward after its battles with Israel in an effort to rebuild an image of strength among its support base. After suffering military setbacks, Hezbollah has escalated its rhetoric against the Lebanese state to demonstrate that it still retains the ability to impose its influence within Lebanon.

Any leniency Washington shows Tehran on the question of Lebanon would effectively strengthen Hezbollah's influence in the country. It would grant the group a political victory at the expense of Lebanese state legitimacy.

Such an outcome would carry dangerous repercussions, prolonging instability and tension in Lebanon, while potentially leading to a renewed outbreak of wider war between Hezbollah and Israel.

In this context, the diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel would become one of the first casualties of such U.S. leniency. Progress in the U.S.-mediated negotiations would be impossible if Hezbollah’s influence is reinforced and its military and security apparatus remains intact.

If the U.S. denies Iran the “consolation prize” of Lebanon at the negotiation table, it would not only weaken Hezbollah’s domestic power, but also bolster Washington’s efforts to broker a broader peace agreement between Beirut and Jerusalem. Washington could further advance its goals in Lebanon by increasing pressure on Iran regarding Hezbollah’s weapons.