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Between environmental disasters and geopolitical crises, the proliferation of epidemics is emerging as an inevitable consequence of the erosion of ecological balances.
The 21st century will be dominated by epidemics. This is neither superstition nor a conspiracy theory. The planet is in distress. The great ecological balances that have sustained life on Earth for millennia are now in disarray. Environmental catastrophes such as global warming, rising sea levels, uncontrollable wildfires, and the accelerated, even rampant, loss of biodiversity illustrate the gradual disintegration of natural systems. The foreseen twilight of Homo sapiens, and thus humanity, should be marked by a heartbreaking realization: human actions have shaken the very foundations of the planet. Geopolitical conflicts, economic inequalities, cultures centered on overconsumption, ineffective and sometimes irresponsible policies have exacerbated this decline, revealing an era where human ambitions clash with irreconcilable ecological realities. In this context of general disorder, epidemics emerge as an inevitable consequence.
Significant Increase
Throughout history, the world has been ravaged by numerous devastating epidemics, including the Plague of Athens in the 5th century BC, the Antonine Plague in the 2nd century, the Plague of Justinian in the 6th century, the Black Death in the 14th century and the Spanish Flu in the 20th century. However, the past two decades have witnessed a significant increase in the number of epidemics, even pandemics, including the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 and in Kivu in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 and, more recently, the monkeypox outbreak in 2022 and again in 2024. This phenomenon is likely to intensify in the future, as suggested by several scientific studies. According to estimates by Marani et al., published in August 2021, the likelihood of extreme epidemics could triple over the coming decades. What are the underlying causes contributing to the increase and exacerbation of this growing threat?
Explosive Epidemics
Global warming, one of the major scourge of our time, has a direct impact on the resurgence of epidemics. It influences the transmission of pathogens (such as dengue, chikungunya, Zika and West Nile viruses) by expanding the habitats of the vectors responsible (such as Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and ticks) for these zoonotic diseases—i.e., transmissible from animals to humans. The emergence of these pathogens in non-endemic regions often leads to explosive epidemics. A meta-analysis published in August 2022 in Nature reveals that 58% of human infectious diseases are exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Additionally, the sudden appearance of other extreme events, which may contaminate drinking water sources and cause the displacement of human and animal populations, can also trigger epidemics. Indeed, cholera and poliomyelitis outbreaks (as currently observed in Gaza) have been reported in regions impacted by natural disasters (such as earthquakes and floods) or human-made disasters (such as wars).
Globalization and Resistance
The spread of infectious diseases like cholera, tuberculosis and malaria over vast geographical areas raises major health concerns. This situation is aggravated by the emergence of drug resistances, the increasing tolerance of mosquitoes to insecticides, insufficient sanitation conditions and the effects of globalization. According to the World Bank, the total number of air passengers rose from fewer than two billion in 2000 to over four billion in 2019, doubling in just two decades. This exponential growth in global connectivity creates new risks associated with emerging pathogens. An American statistical study published in 2022 confirmed this by highlighting that air network connectivity has contributed to increased viral transmission, based on data related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Scientific Skepticism
Increasing skepticism and distrust towards science have a troubling impact on the spread of epidemics. By questioning evidence-based recommendations and rejecting established preventive strategies, efforts to control epidemics can be severely compromised. The persistence of poliomyelitis is partly due to vaccine hesitancy in certain regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where six new cases have been reported so far in 2024. The WHO has warned that if vaccination rates remain low, this localized endemic could quickly evolve into a global epidemic. Moreover, according to a study published in October 2021 in Nature, scientific skepticism has led to decreased adherence to COVID-19 lockdown measures in the United States, exacerbating the virus’ spread.
Irresponsible Policies
Unfounded, sometimes irresponsible policies play a significant role in unintentionally increasing the risk of infectious disease spread. Some policymakers continue to regard global warming as a mere myth. Thus, they refuse to acknowledge its harmful and irreversible effects on the planet and to commit to concrete actions to counteract them. Furthermore, the indifference and inadequacy of measures taken in response to epidemics ravaging impoverished countries reflect a shortsighted vision and a lack of global solidarity. In reality, neglecting public health in one part of the world exposes the entire planet to potential health crises. Current monkeypox outbreaks are a prime example. Finally, in the face of escalating international tensions, the threat of biological weapons is surfacing. Certain infectious agents, such as Bacillus anthracis (the bacterium responsible for anthrax), Yersinia pestis (the bacterium responsible for plague), or the smallpox virus could be used, representing major dangers to humanity.
The potential risk of epidemic outbreaks poses a significant concern for the future of humanity. It is essential to foster international collaborations to manage this threat and reduce the dangers it presents.
