According to Reuters, Hezbollah did not evacuate its key sites or senior officials in Beirut’s suburbs before the recent Israeli airstrike that killed Fouad Shokr, a senior commander, on Tuesday. The group believed and trusted that the US-led diplomatic efforts would prevent an attack, according to information obtained by Reuters from sources close to Hezbollah and diplomats.
Hezbollah’s leadership assumed that Israel would avoid targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahyeh, where the group’s support base is strong. This belief, according to Reuters, was rooted in an understanding that both sides would adhere to unofficial red lines, particularly amid heightened tensions following the Gaza War. This assessment was shared by eight diplomats with knowledge of recent US-led mediation efforts, as well as three security sources close to Hezbollah, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to Reuteurs due to the sensitivity of the issue.
The situation took a dramatic turn when an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday targeted Dahyeh, killing Hezbollah’s top military commander, an Iranian military advisor and five civilians. According to Reuters, Lebanese officials and Hezbollah are now questioning whether diplomatic messages were accurately conveyed to the group. Lebanon’s caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib expressed surprise, stating, “We were not expecting them to hit Beirut, and they hit Beirut.”
The situation escalated further with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian group Hamas, in Tehran shortly after the Beirut strike. These incidents have raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. Tensions had been rising since a deadly strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27, which Israel attributed to Hezbollah, despite the group’s denial.
Diplomats, including US envoy Amos Hochstein, attempted to mediate by urging Israel not to target Dahyeh in its response. However, according to Reuters, a Hezbollah official confirmed that while such diplomatic efforts were communicated to the group, no commitments were made by Israel. This lack of assurance led to a false sense of security, with top Hezbollah officials seen in Dahyeh in the days preceding the strike.
Despite evacuating some key sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, Hezbollah did not implement similar precautions in Beirut, indicating a miscalculation of the threat level, as per Reuters. Diplomats and security sources reported that Hezbollah officials living near the targeted building were evacuated in a panic after the attack.
A regional diplomat noted that Israel may have refrained from targeting southern and eastern Lebanon due to the absence of significant Hezbollah targets, based on information obtained by Israel. However, two European diplomats observed that Hezbollah’s lack of caution in Beirut was unexpected. “There was a clear message sent” that Israel would avoid striking major cities, including Beirut, a diplomat said, suggesting that Israel had disregarded diplomatic efforts to limit its response.
According to Reuters, a Western diplomat and an Iranian official criticized Israel’s actions, stating that the strike on Dahyeh “crossed red lines.” The Western envoy described the failure of diplomacy, noting the limited influence even powerful nations like the United States have over Israel’s actions. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech during the funeral of the slain commander Fouad Shokr, emphasized that Israel had underestimated the consequences of its actions, and noted that certain countries had requested Hezbollah not to retaliate – a request he rejected.
