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All efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and south Lebanon have unraveled following two recent Israeli attacks: one targeting Hezbollah in the southern suburbs, where they struck the party’s military commander, Fouad Shokr, and another targeting Hamas with the assassination of the head of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.
Full-scale war scenarios have now surfaced, shifting the focus to the timing and potential duration of such a conflict. Key considerations include Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of Shokr and the civilian casualties, as well as Tehran’s decisions regarding this situation. In fact, Tehran holds significant sway in this matter, as it must decide whether to contain the war within established boundaries or allow it to escalate beyond the recognized rules of engagement.
Amos Hochstein, the Senior Advisor to President Joe Biden, is likely to be the most affected by this development. In fact, Hochstein was aiming to achieve another significant milestone in Lebanon by easing tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese borders with a long-term solution in line with Resolution 1701. This effort would build on his previous success in brokering a maritime border agreement in October 2022.
According to information from the United States, Amos Hochstein may not remain in his position even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the presidential election in November. As a key ally of current President Joe Biden, Hochstein is expected to exit the White House alongside him should Harris win the presidency and bring in her own team.
Hochstein would also step down if former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, wins the election. In fact, Trump has a different team specializing in the Middle East, known for its hardline stance against Iran and its regional proxies, especially Hezbollah. This team is likely to reinstate sanctions targeting Lebanese officials, politicians and leaders, if challenges arise in addressing issues with Israel and within Lebanon.
Sources indicate that Hochstein is spearheading efforts to pressure both the Israelis and the Lebanese into achieving a lasting ceasefire on the southern front. This includes addressing disputes along the Blue Line and Israeli violations. Hochstein is also offering significant incentives to Lebanon, including an additional $400 million in US military aid to deploy 6,000 soldiers south of the Litani River, as well as hundreds of millions of dollars for the reconstruction of the southern region.
Meanwhile, Hochstein and the US administration are fully aware that the Lebanese government is unlikely to make decisions that go against Hezbollah’s position in this war. They also recognize that failing to reach a border agreement could be disastrous for Lebanon, as the potential for failure is ever-present, even if negotiations are ongoing. Hezbollah’s agenda clashes with that of the Lebanese majority, and the Shiite party may reject some terms approved by the government. In this context, Hezbollah’s aim is to keep the current government, which acts as its official political arm. Thus, the party continues to obstruct the presidential elections to ensure that the new president and the forthcoming government will not, even theoretically, challenge its agenda.
