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Hezbollah’s air defense units “fired an anti-aircraft missile” at Israeli warplanes flying over south Lebanon”, forcing them “to retreat from the Lebanese airspace”, according to a communiqué published by Hezbollah on the night of Thursday to Friday. Is it a game changer or an incident that can be exploited politically by Hezbollah?
Contacted by This Is Beirut, retired army general and general director of Regional Forum Consultancy and Studies (RFSC), Khaled Hamade, believes that “a simple communiqué would not be enough to substantiate Hezbollah’s declaration, given especially that the Americans and Israelis mentioned nothing about it.”
Hamade said. “We have no information on the type of missile used or its capacity when it comes to the defense of the Lebanese airspace.” In this same context, the retired general explained that “state-of-the-art missiles, which should normally be a threat to the Israeli air force, are part of a radar and electronic jamming system. Therefore, they cannot be easily concealed.”
Additionally, General Hamade highlighted that “some modern planes can hit their target hundreds of kilometers away. Israel (that owns these planes) can hence hit targets in Lebanon from the Western Mediterranean.” He asked the following question: “Can such an anti-aircraft missile endanger such planes from so long a distance? We don’t know that, the answer to this question requires a good deal of objectivity and restraint. We should wait and see if a similar incident occurs again, and if this type of missile will really be a game changer.”
General Hamade also wonders if Tehran possesses missiles that are able to counter the threat of Israeli and American jet fighters, known to be the most efficient in the region. He states that Russia (Iran’s ally in Syria and Ukraine) has such means; radars and a big number of anti-aircraft missiles whose efficacy was tested on the battlefields of Ukraine. But would Moscow hand them over to the Islamic Republic? If it does, would it want to see them used by Hezbollah? Hamade answered all these questions by saying “In any case, if Russia intended to arm Hezbollah with such weapons, it would have rather given them to the Revolutionary Guard or the Syrian regime, knowing that the Israeli air force regularly bombs targets in Syria.” All things considered, using these weapons requires the Kremlin’s approval, which applies to Lebanon.”
Following the same logic, Hamade is convinced that this incident is “exploitable” locally. He said that party statements made to the media aim to show that Hezbollah is capable of “protecting” Lebanon and bring about positive change in its struggle against Israel. The second aim is to rally more people to its cause. Finally, General Hamade insisted that “it is still too early to determine whether the incident and these weapons can change the game; objectivity and rigor remain an imperative.”
