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Who remains in Lebanon? Primarily the elderly. Who is emigrating? The young, but also families. The demographics of the Lebanese population are undergoing a significant shift, mainly due to the economic deadlock in which the country finds itself.
Emigration is not a new phenomenon for societies, which typically experience migratory cycles limited by time and space. However, in Lebanon, this phenomenon has transformed into a dream for the majority of families, especially for the most educated young people.
According to figures from Mohamad Chamseddine, an economist at the research and analysis firm Information International, around 468,000 Lebanese, or nearly half a million — mostly young people — have emigrated between 2016 and 2024.
Chamseddine raises the alarm, pointing out that Lebanon is not only losing its inhabitants, but its population is also aging.
From 2016 to 2019, the average population growth was 63,500 people per year. However, from 2020 to 2023, this average dropped to 38,200, marking a decrease of approximately 40%.
Currently, 30% of the Lebanese population is over 50 years old. If this trend continues over the next seven years, the proportion of seniors could reach 40 to 43%, and even 60% within the next two decades.
Among the factors contributing to the decline in births are, in addition to emigration, the economic crisis, the lack of mortgage loans, a 13.3% reduction in marriage contracts, and a 7.7% increase in divorce.
Metn and Kesrwan
In response to a question from This is Beirut, Mohamad Chamseddine cited the example of the cazas of Metn and Kesrwan, where the population of Christian origin registered only minimal demographic growth in 2023, at 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively. “Nationally, the country is surviving thanks to funds from the diaspora, but it is losing human capital as its population ages,” he added.
He also highlighted that the cost of living in Lebanon has increased significantly, noting that a family of three now needs $580 to cover its basic needs, a sum that not all families have.
The Desire to Leave
Furthermore, a survey conducted by Arab Barometer, a pan-Arab observatory, between February and April 2024 among a sample of 2,400 Lebanese revealed that 38% of them wish to leave the country. This represents an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the 26% recorded in 2018.
The numbers show that young people and university graduates are particularly inclined to emigrate. Indeed, 58% of those aged 18 to 29 expressed this desire, double the number of individuals aged 30 and older, according to the study. Additionally, those with higher education levels are more likely to want to emigrate than those with lower education levels (46% versus 33%).
Economic Crisis
The survey reveals that economic conditions remain the primary driver of emigration. No Lebanese considers the economic situation to be positive nor expects it to improve. Thus, it is unsurprising that nearly 7 out of 10 people (72%) wish to leave Lebanon.
Security and political issues also play a significant role among the reasons cited for emigration. Security concerns, worsened by the ongoing war in southern Lebanon and spreading to the north and west of the Bekaa, are now the second most frequently cited reason by potential Lebanese migrants in 2024, with 27%, up 14 percentage points from the 13% recorded in 2022.
Concerns about corruption have also become a major factor in emigration, with 24% of Lebanese stating that corruption is a primary reason for wanting to leave, compared to 16% in 2022. Similarly, the proportion of Lebanese citing political issues as a motive for emigration increased from 16% in 2022 to 23% in 2024.
