Following the killing of Haniyeh in Iran on Wednesday, the region may be on the precipice of war, as an Iranian response seems likely, which may pull its entire so-called “axis of resistance” into war.
In the early hours of Wednesday, Israel struck a building in Tehran in an attack that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
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This follows an Israeli strike in Beirut on Tuesday that resulted in the deaths of two children and a woman, injuring 74 others, according to the latest figures.
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The region now finds itself on the precipice of the long-feared escalation that has hung over it since October 7th.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has promised ‘harsh punishment’ for Israel following Haniyeh’s killing. The powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the killing “will be met with a harsh and painful response” by Iran and the entire “axis of resistance.”
In April, an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate building killed seven and precipitated a major and unprecedented Iranian response in the form of missiles and drone attacks on Israel.
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Yet this represents a more dangerous moment. A direct Israeli attack on Iran and the killing of Hamas’ most senior leader, less than 12 hours after Israel struck Beirut for the second time in 10 long months of war, resulted in the as-of-yet unconfirmed assassination of Hezbollah’s second-most senior leader.
It now seems self-evident that Iran will respond; the question is how severe will their retaliation will be and whether the whole region will be set alight.
According to Yeghia Tashjian, International Affairs Cluster Coordinator at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, at the American University of Beirut the killing crossed a red line that Iran established following April’s missile attack, making it unlikely that things will calm down.
CNN reported at the time that Iran’s April attack on Israel was highly choreographed; drones and missiles were launched 1,000 miles away in order to give Israel time to respond, and the US was notified ahead of time.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it was strategically calibrated to demonstrate Iran’s capacity to target Israel while signaling its intent to do so in the face of any more attacks.
This signal marked an unspoken red line—a red line that Israel has now crossed—in effect, making Iran’s policy of deterrence a failure.
The possibility of seeing another choreographed response is unlikely, as Iran will feel obliged to respect the red line they established in order to reinstate deterrence.
According to Tashjian, there are also a number of domestic and regional pressures that will push Iran to respond.
Iran’s newly elected President Pezeshkian, a reformer, will have to “show some teeth” in order to face off criticism from hardliners who fear he may be “soft” on foreign policy, says Tashjian.
Tashjian adds that this high-profile assassination in Tehran, just hours after the inauguration of the President, is a “total embarrassment for Iran, the IRGC, and its intelligence agencies.”
Its failure to protect one of its most significant allies in the heart of its capital on one of the biggest days in the political calendar is a damning display of their ability to protect and support their so-called “axis of resistance.”.
On a regional level, Iran will feel compelled to demonstrate that “it is still in control,” says Tashjian.
As a result, it is quite possible that retaliation will come from across the “axis of resistance.” According to Mohammed Al Basha, analyst at the US-based Navanti Group, we may well see “a coordinated joint reaction from Hezbollah in Lebanon to avenge Fuad Shukr, from Houthis in Yemen to retaliate for the bombing of Hudaydah Port, and from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, increasing the potential for further escalation” across the region.
Tehran would almost certainly be a direct participant, says Al Basha, following Khamenei’s post on X, claiming it is their “duty to take revenge.”
Following this bitter, tragic event that has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.
Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) July 31, 2024
It is unclear where Iran would decide to target, but the likely choices are “Israeli military or intelligence bases,” claims Tashjian. US military bases in Syria may also potentially be a target, due to perceptions that the US may have green-lit the operation or at the very least failed to pressure Netanyahu enough to stop it.
The careful choreography of geopolitics that has largely held since October between Iran, the “axis of resistance”, and Israel appears to be breaking down. Israel has struck Yemen for the first time in recent weeks; it struck Beirut on Tuesday, and now Iran.
According to Al Basha, it is these “shifting thresholds for conflict… that make the coming days critical for regional stability.”
