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3. Behind Netanyahu’s Calculus on Lebanon Escalation Amid Potential U.S.-Iran Deal

Israel launched a widespread wave of overnight strikes across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, targeting more than 100 Hezbollah sites, according to the Israeli military. The IDF said the strikes hit weapons storage facilities, command centers, observation posts, and infrastructure allegedly used by Hezbollah militants to coordinate attacks against Israeli forces and civilians. 

The escalation came alongside increasingly forceful rhetoric from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Israel is “at war with Hezbollah” and vowed to intensify military operations. 

“We’re not taking our foot off the gas,” Netanyahu said, adding that he had ordered the military to “press the pedal even harder.”

The escalation also comes amid growing speculation over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal to end the conflict with Iran could soon materialize, while President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that an agreement had been “largely negotiated.” 

Iran-U.S. Deal Leaks Linked to Israeli Escalation

For political analyst Sam Menasa, the recent Israeli escalation is a direct response to recent leaks by U.S. officials that an Iran-U.S. deal may be emerging. “What happened last night is certainly related to the disappointment of the Israelis from this potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran,” he told This is Beirut. 

Menasa said Netanyahu and most of the Israeli population oppose a U.S.-Iran deal and are being sidelined as Washington negotiates directly with Tehran, effectively making it an American-Iranian agreement, Menasa noted.

Speaking to This Is Beirut from the Lebanese Parliament, MP Salim El Sayegh said Israel is simultaneously sending a message both to Hezbollah and to Washington. “Israel is effectively saying that it will not accept any arrangement involving Iranian proxies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, because for Israel this is an immediate national security issue,” he said.

El Sayegh stressed that, from the Israeli perspective, any agreement that does not substantially weaken Hezbollah’s military role remains unacceptable. 

He also highlighted what he described as a fundamental difference between the American and Israeli approaches toward Iran. Israel views Hezbollah as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s main proxy operating directly along its border, making the threat from Iran far more immediate for Israel than it is for the U.S., he explained.

According to El Sayegh, the main factor limiting Israel from expanding the war in Lebanon is U.S. pressure, alongside Israel’s current focus on consolidating its territorial gains in southern Lebanon.

Israeli Operations Ultimately Independent of U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Menasa emphasized that although the recent U.S.-Iran talks could increase Israeli escalation, Netanyahu has made it clear that he will pursue direct attacks on Hezbollah no matter what. 

“After October 7th, Israel will not accept Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon, regardless of whether there is an agreement with Iran,” he emphasized. 

The Israelis will never accept Hezbollah having long-range missiles, drones, and sophisticated arms in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, Menasa argued. “This is not acceptable anymore from the side of Israel by any means.”  

Israel believes it no longer has sufficient room to tolerate the status quo militarily, psychologically, or politically, El Sayegh argued. Israeli leaders believe they must “finish the job,” otherwise the long-term foundations of Israeli deterrence and security could be permanently weakened. 

El Sayegh explained that Israel has so far avoided a nationwide destruction campaign against Lebanon because it is still attempting to preserve a distinction between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. Israel is seeking complete operational freedom to continue targeting Hezbollah’s military capabilities, he argued, and will reject any ceasefire arrangement that allows the group to recover militarily.

Hezbollah views pauses in fighting as strategic opportunities that allow it to reorganize, recover, and rebuild its capabilities, El Sayegh concluded.