Listen to the article
Could the ongoing war in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, coupled with concerns about Lebanon’s potential entanglement in an escalated conflict, expedite efforts to prevent a leadership vacancy within the army? This vacuum would result from the retirement of the army’s Commander-in-Chief, General Joseph Aoun, on January 10.
According to several reliable sources, Lebanese officials have “started the engines” to prevent such a situation, amidst the current military threat climate. The urgency is further emphasized by the fact that the position of the army’s Chief of Staff, meant to ensure interim leadership in the event of a vacancy at the helm of the military institution, has been vacant since last December.
This matter may have been discussed during General Joseph Aoun’s meeting with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri on Monday, as well as during meetings held by Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil with both Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt.
Three Options
There are currently three main options on the table. The first entails extending General Joseph Aoun’s tenure. The second seeks to delay his retirement, along with that of several other high-ranking officials in the army., while the third option revolves around the appointment of a new Chief of Staff.
The first two solutions are met with resistance on the part of Bassil, who seizes every opportunity to criticize General Joseph Aoun, widely regarded by many parties as the ideal consensus candidate for the presidency. The close association of Minister of Defense Maurice Slim with the FPM and Bassil further complicates these solutions.
It is worth recalling that the tenure of the former Army Commander, General Jean Kahwaji, was extended by former Defense Minister Samir Mokbel, under Tamam Salam’s government, which had governed Lebanon during the presidential vacancy of 2014-2016.
Chief of Staff
The third option, namely the appointment of a new Chief of Staff, is also rejected by Slim and Bassil, who argue that a caretaker government cannot make appointments, particularly within the military council (the decision-making body within the army) during a presidential vacancy. In addition to the position of Chief of Staff (Druze), the positions of Inspector General (Greek Orthodox) and Director General of Administration (Shiite), all within the Military Council, are also vacant.
In this context, Bassil recently accused General Joseph Aoun of plotting a “military coup” by attempting to appoint members of the military council without involving Minister Slim.
Sources close to the FPM parliamentary bloc point out that in the event of a vacancy at the helm of the army, and in the absence of a Chief of Staff, the highest-ranking officer should take over the interim role. In fact, this option is favorable to the FPM, as the officer in question would be Pierre Saab (Greek Catholic), close to the Aounist movement. However, this option is rejected by many political parties. General Joseph Aoun emphasized back in June that the Chief of Staff alone can take on the interim role after the Army Commander’s departure.
Jumblatt
Against this backdrop, former MP Walid Jumblatt sounded the alarm on Sunday. On the X platform, he raised the following question, “As the country teeters on the edge of war, would it be wise for certain political forces and figures to boycott the Council of Ministers aimed at extending the tenure of the current Army Commander and appointing a Chief of Staff?” He emphasized, “Let’s move beyond regressive presidential calculations. Let’s create a united front to better deal with the worst possibilities.”
Of note, the position of Chief of Staff has been vacant since the retirement of former officeholder, Amin el-Orm, on December 24, 2022. The Democratic Gathering (parliamentary bloc of the PSP) has put forward a draft law aimed at extending the years of service for certain first-category civil servants, but it has yet to be put to a vote.
Government or Parliament?
This issue was reportedly raised during the last Council of Ministers by Minister Nasser Yassin. The alleged response from Mikati was that it would be discussed in the next government meeting. However, if resolving the matter in the Council of Ministers proves challenging due to the boycott of sessions by the FPM ministers, resorting to Parliament could be a solution.
According to informed sources, MP Michel Daher, a staunch supporter of General Joseph Aoun, might introduce a draft law to extend the Army Commander’s tenure. In this case, the new question that arises would be whether the blocs refusing to participate in any legislative sessions until the election of a President would agree to be part to a meeting aimed at avoiding a leadership vacuum in the army, given the current exceptional circumstances.
The upcoming days should clarify the chosen option and provide answers to several questions. Nonetheless, the issue of this vacancy is closely intertwined with another vacancy that has persisted for a year at the helm of the Lebanese State.
According to political sources, both the FPM and Hezbollah would root for the appointment of a Chief of Staff over any solution that would keep General Joseph Aoun in his position and bolster his chances of ascending to the presidency.
