Hezbollah was still recovering from the wounds inflicted by the Israeli cyberattack on its communications network when it suffered another devastating blow: the targeting of Dahyeh and the assassination of its highest-ranking security official, Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the elite Radwan Brigade, who was wanted by the US and France for the 1984 bombing of the Marines’ headquarters and the French “Drakkar” barracks.
According to informed sources, the Israeli cyberattack coincided with meetings of the Quintet ambassadors and Lebanese political leaders aimed at finding solutions for the presidential election, following positive signals from Amal and Hezbollah.
Quintet sources reported that the initial step toward a resolution was to elect a president who could negotiate on behalf of the State and form a government responsible for overseeing the implementation of Resolution 1701. However, an opposition figure noted that the recent Israeli attacks have drastically shifted the situation, especially after Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah declared in his latest address: “The cyber aggression will be met with a severe response and just retribution,” emphasizing that the details of the operation are being kept within a very tight circle.
In this context, Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, during a visit to Maarab—home of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea—stated: “We are now in a completely different situation after the Israeli assault has outpaced the Quintet’s diplomatic efforts. This incident has created a new reality with significant consequences, effectively reversing all positive developments regarding the presidential election.”
Quintet sources revealed that Iran conveyed a new stance through Amal and Hezbollah to France, focusing on a third option. In response, French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian visited Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar to discuss ways to translate this positive Iranian position. But what exactly is the third option about?
According to informed sources, Amal and Hezbollah would withdraw their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, from the presidential race, while the opposition, including the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), would agree to drop Jihad Azour’s candidacy. Both sides would then focus on agreeing to a set of criteria for a mutually acceptable third candidate.
However, the cyberattack, according to an opposition leader, has ushered in “a new phase of confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, just as the third option for electing a president was within reach.”
The conflict has now entered a predominantly security-driven stage, with Netanyahu seeking to establish a 10-kilometer buffer zone in southern Lebanon to ensure the safe return of settlers and set a new deadline for it, after failing to fulfill his initial promise to bring them back by early September.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is facing mounting pressure at home from settlers and families of prisoners, with growing calls for his resignation and the formation of a new government made up of moderates who support a two-state solution and the creation of an independent Palestinian State. In response, Netanyahu has shifted from engaging in large-scale warfare—prohibited by the US, international, and regional constraints—to conducting targeted security operations, as seen in the recent strikes on communication networks, as well as in Dahyeh and southern Lebanon.
In Lebanon, a former official has ruled out the possibility of electing a president before the election of a new US president who could expedite the settlement intended for the new Middle East. As a result, there has been a surge of activity within the United Nations and among key decision-making capitals, focused on ending the conflict in southern Lebanon and addressing contentious issues between Lebanon and Israel.
According to an informed source, Hezbollah will not make any concessions without a directive from Iran, which is anticipating a potential agreement with Washington. The source emphasizes that matters are on hold until after the US presidential election in November, while Netanyahu is expected to continue security operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, including its leaders, storage facilities, and weapons production sites.
