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Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affaires Abdallah Bou Habib made a statement suggesting that Israel might not stop its military operations in southern Lebanon, even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. In an interview with Al Jazeera English, the foreign minister based his remarks on statements from Israeli officials and messages conveyed to Lebanon by the United States, France and other countries. These messages consistently emphasized that Israel gave no guarantees that a ceasefire in Gaza would extend to southern Lebanon, as it is seeking a long-term solution that allows residents of its northern settlements to return to their homes and live in stability. In this context, Israel sent a letter to the UN Security Council, urging Lebanon to implement Resolution 1701. The Lebanese side responded with a letter affirming that implementation must occur from both sides, not just Lebanon.
Reports suggest that Lebanon fears the war in its southern region could continue indefinitely, or at least as long as the conflict in Gaza persists. This places a significant burden on the Lebanese people, worsening the suffering of the southern population and further weakening the state, especially if the presidential elections remain deadlocked. In parallel, Lebanon is reportedly seeking a fair agreement with Israel to end military operations in southern Lebanon, regardless of the situation in Gaza.
However, the specifics of such a deal remain unclear, as neither Hezbollah nor Israel has publicly shown readiness to take this step. While both sides seem to want it, Hezbollah faces the dilemma that agreeing to such a deal could be seen as retreating from its so-called “support front,” which might be perceived as a defeat. Meanwhile, Israel is hesitant to move forward without firm guarantees of the deal’s success.
Despite the acknowledged challenges, the Americans remain committed to pursuing a breakthrough. Amos Hochstein, Senior Advisor to the US President, is prepared to act as soon as a ceasefire in Gaza is announced. His goal is to secure a resolution for southern Lebanon that would extend beyond 1701, especially if it involves new arrangements on both sides of the border. This may require a new resolution from the UN Security Council.
