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The visit of United States presidential envoy Amos Hochstein did not achieve success on two fronts:
The first is linked to the ceasefire at the Lebanese-Israeli border. Hochstein was informed once more that a ceasefire at this border is contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza.
The second is about de-escalation at the border. Hochstein did not receive any guarantees on the matter. Hezbollah links the level of escalation to the requirements of the battle and the needs of the field.
Sources indicated that despite this, Hochstein attempted to gauge the opinion of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berry on the possibility of launching an independent political process in southern Lebanon to implement Resolution 1701, should efforts to reach a ceasefire with Hamas fail. However, Berry responded that the focus should currently be on stopping the fire in Gaza, and once the plan for the south post-ceasefire is ready, work on its implementation should begin immediately.
The information revealed that this diplomatic discussion was not the primary focus of the visit. The American envoy informed the Lebanese officials he met with that Israel is determined to change the prevailing situation at its northern border, either through force or diplomacy. Israel will not accept a return to the pre-October 8th status quo, where settlements are threatened again. Hochstein advised adopting a diplomatic solution because Israel’s alternative option is military action. He emphasized that the US would not be able to prevent Israel from expanding the war if its political and military leadership decided to do so.
A Lebanese official privy to Hochstein’s discussions mentioned that the Americans seem to rely on the balance of terror between Israel and Hezbollah to maintain the current situation in southern Lebanon. However, the American envoy is convinced that Tel Aviv seeks to conclude the battle in Rafah as quickly as possible. This would allow Israel to transfer forces from there to the northern front, with some of these forces already integrated into the Northern Command’s plans and scenarios for any wide-scale war with Hezbollah.
