Anyone who thought they had seen it all in France is completely wrong! Since the announcement of snap elections for June 30 and July 7, political developments and electoral surprises have continued to multiply. One of the most notable is the supposed alliance between Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and The Republicans (LR), representing the moderate Gaullist-Chirac right.
Last Tuesday, LR president Éric Ciotti expressed on TF1 the need for a LR-RN alliance, thus announcing a union of the right for the upcoming legislative elections. This decision sparked strong opposition among party leaders, leading to his exclusion from the political bureau meeting on Wednesday. What are the reasons behind this unilateral decision? Is this alliance being contested among LR members? Does this ongoing drama at LR herald the implosion of the Gaullist right? Ultimately, isn’t this the goal of the RN?
It isn’t easy to know exactly what Éric Ciotti had in mind when unilaterally announcing an alliance with the RN. Several hypotheses can be proposed. One is linked to LR’s historic weakening, notably demonstrated during the 2022 presidential election. LR’s decline is evident among right-wing voters. Concerned about immigration and security issues, they have gradually aligned more closely with RN’s positions. The two parties have increasingly converged, mostly due to RN’s strategy to avoid stigmatization and adopt more moderate political positions since their defeat in the 2017 presidential election. Not to mention that Mr. Ciotti has never tried to conceal his convictions, which cannot be described as moderate.
Éric Ciotti’s strategic calculation seems to be that, faced with the left’s alliance, it is impossible to ally with Macron’s camp, leaving RN as their only viable option. This decision represents an almost anthropological rupture for LR. Historically, attempts at rapprochement have been made, such as the election of heads of regional councils in 1998. However, this alliance represents a profound rupture considering the firm positions held by emblematic figures like Jacques Chirac or Nicolas Sarkozy. It significantly complicates LR’s preparation for the legislative campaign.
Éric Ciotti’s decision, which has already caused a wave of departures from the party, has not, however, been rejected by LR partisans. According to the most recent Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey conducted for Le Figaro, half of right-wing sympathizers approve of the idea of an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. This proportion rises to 79% among RN supporters, three-quarters of whom strongly support the alliance.
By triggering the implosion of LR through a risky electoral agreement with Marine Le Pen, Éric Ciotti has not only delivered his party’s scalp to its historical enemy but has also achieved the personal goal of the far-right leader. Since assuming leadership of RN in 2011, Marine Le Pen has constantly wished for the disintegration of the traditional Gaullist right. What better way to achieve this than by dedicating her political career to ending the “Mitterrand trap” and breaking the “sanitary cordon” of the right? Understanding these concepts requires historical context: The Mitterrand trap refers to a strategy attributed to the former president (a leftist) who deliberately favored the rise of the National Front (FN), led by Jean-Marie Le Pen (now RN) in the French political landscape. This strategy was designed to divide the traditional right to facilitate electoral victories for the left. If the FN managed to reach the second round of the presidential election, it was vilified to facilitate alliances between the left and center for easier election wins. As a result, the leftist Mitterrand won elections, while ostracizing and vilifying the right.
In response, the Gaullist-Chirac right was forced to establish a “sanitary cordon,” a term referring to a political strategy aimed at isolating the far-right, notably the National Front, from other political parties. This strategy involved rejecting any alliance, coalition or cooperation with the far-right, even in the event of a second round of elections where the far-right candidate could win against a left-wing or centrist candidate. The goal of the sanitary cordon was to keep the far-right out of government responsibilities and to preserve the party’s consensus around France’s democratic and republican values.
But how did Marine Le Pen manage to reverse the situation? Does she have an interest in favoring the implosion of LR?
Marine Le Pen cleverly reversed the situation by initiating a strategy of political moderation, which she started in 2012 and reinforced after her presidential defeat in 2017 against Emmanuel Macron. Once perceived as extremist, her positions gradually aligned with those of the traditional Republican right-wing, particularly on crucial issues such as immigration, security and delinquency. She abandoned radical proposals, such as leaving the eurozone and the European Union, opting for an approach focused on socio-economic issues to gain leftist and youth votes. Her goal was to end the stigma around her and, consequently, become politically acceptable and approachable to a large segment of the French electorate.
Today, the NR benefits from aligning itself ideologically with issues of crucial importance for the traditional Republican right. This convergence has contributed to the implosion of LR, amplified by the weakening of the Gaullist right and the aspirations of some of its members, such as Éric Ciotti, who hope to increase LR’s chances in the elections by allying themselves with the RN. This dynamic has divided the LR electorate, with a significant part, estimated at around 50% according to polls, considering switching to RN. Others would remain loyal to LR without siding with any specific camp, and a smaller fraction might turn towards the presidential camp.
In a sense, it is a carefully considered strategy and a political victory for Marine Le Pen, who now embodies the union of the right, imploding LR and recovering a large part of the traditional right-wing electorate…
