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3. Israel Prepares for Possible Iranian “Mistake”

Israel’s security establishment is preparing for the possibility of a multi-front confrontation, operating on the assumption that any Iranian misstep would trigger a severe military response, carried out with U.S. approval, according to a report by the Israeli daily Maariv.

In Tel Aviv, the prevailing question is no longer whether such an Iranian “mistake” will occur, but when.

According to Israeli assessments, such a mistake could take several forms, ranging from a direct missile launch toward Israeli territory to a sharp escalation in Tehran’s crackdown on domestic protesters, a scenario that Israeli officials believe would cross U.S. red lines, as outlined by President Trump in recent statements on Iran.

Iran’s Missile Capabilities

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a special security meeting earlier this week, his first since returning from talks with Trump in the U.S., according to Israeli officials.

During his visit, Netanyahu sought U.S. approval on two tracks. The immediate focus was securing freedom of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A second, longer-term objective centered on gaining American backing for potential Israeli action aimed at disrupting Iran’s efforts to restore and expand its ballistic missile capabilities.

Israeli officials say Iran has been working to rebuild assets damaged during the June conflict, though intelligence assessments indicate Tehran has not yet returned to its pre-war missile capacity.

Israel’s “Red Line” Calculus

According to Israeli estimates, Iran has not crossed what Israel defines as a critical threshold in terms of the number of missile launchers and operational ballistic missiles. Officials say Tehran remains below the levels it maintained on the eve of last summer’s war.

However, Israeli officials stress that their strategic calculus has shifted. Rather than waiting for Iran to fully reconstitute its missile arsenal, Israel now favors addressing the threat while it remains limited.

That shift marks a departure from previous priorities, when Israel’s primary focus was Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. Senior Israeli officials now indicate that Iran itself, rather than its regional proxies, has become the central concern in Israeli security planning.

Intelligence Concerns Over Missile Components

Israeli intelligence assessments have further heightened concern in recent weeks, pointing to what officials describe as Iranian efforts to acquire advanced missile-related components.

An Israeli official, cited by the news site Walla, said Iran has been importing materials used in centrifuge systems and ballistic missile production, activities Israel views as destabilizing and deliberately concealed.

The official added that President Trump’s public warnings toward Tehran suggest Washington is aware of these activities, reinforcing Israeli confidence that U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments are aligned.

Finally, Israeli officials say the message is intended not only for Tehran but also for regional actors and international partners, underscoring Israel’s readiness to act and its expectation of close coordination with Washington should tensions escalate.