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Hezbollah’s rockets on northern Israel, Houthis’ actions against ships in the Red Sea, logistical support for Hamas in Gaza, and attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria. Behind all these actions, many States point to Tehran’s involvement. Indeed, for the past 45 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has continuously expanded its influence in the region. It all began with an unprecedented religious revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979. Revered for the mysticism of the duodeciman (12th) shiism, Khomeini enforced the supremacy of the religious leader and defined the fundamental objectives of the clerical state as “the expansion of divine sovereignty in the world, the defense of the oppressed, and the unity of the Islamic world.” The following is a review of the origins of a Persian religious fervor that has significantly reshaped the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and propagated extremist Islamic activism all the way to the West.
The message of the Islamic Republic is based on a clear ideology: a state can only claim to be Islamic if it works for the independence and unity of the Ummah.
An age-old writing by Khomeini, conveniently republished by religious authorities in the early 1980s, unmistakably foresees subsequent events: “Holy War, waged for the conquest of lands and kingdoms, becomes a duty following the establishment of the Islamic State under the Imam’s guidance or by his decree. Therefore, Islam compels all able-bodied adult men to prepare for the conquest of territories, ensuring the spread of Islamic law across the globe. All countries conquered by Islam shall receive the seal of eternal salvation, basking in the radiance of divine law. Those unaware of the true teachings of Islam mistakenly advocate for peace. They are ignorant indeed. Islam commands: ‘Kill all nonbelievers, just like they would kill you all.'”
A long-time companion of Khomeini, Ayatollah Khalkhali, known for his ruthless leadership of the Islamic courts, reinforces this message by invoking the heroic narrative of the Twelve Imams: “Those unwilling to kill have no place in Islam. Our Imam Ali killed more than 700 individuals in a single day. Should the survival of our faith necessitate bloodshed, we are ready to fulfill our duty.”
Spreading the revolution is therefore a religious obligation for every Muslim, and Tehran positions itself as the central hub of this messianic project. Contrary to the predictions of some observers, Khomeini’s death in 1989 will not alter this path; rather, the policy of expansion will not only persevere but will also intensify. It is evident that despite the hostility it triggers, both domestically and internationally, the theocratic state has managed to endure by remaining steadfast and true to its core values.
The Pan-Islamic vision – not solely confined to Pan-Shiite perspectives – embraced by the Ayatollahs will have profound geopolitical implications in the Middle East, potentially spilling over to the West through the rise of fundamentalism and by resorting to terrorism. Shortly after the establishment of the Islamic Republic, religious authorities had already begun condemning pro-American regimes in the region and urging Iraq’s Shiite population to “revolt against the Ba’athist regime, perceived as atheistic and an enemy of Islam and the Iraqi people.”
An Islamic Republic in Beirut
In November 1979, disregarding international conventions, students “followers of the Imam” stormed the US embassy, initiating a 444-day standoff.
Simultaneously, when a fundamentalist Islamist commando, opposed to the Saudi royal power, attacked Mecca’s Grand Mosque, Riyadh accused Iran of instigating this operation to export its revolution and impose its dominance over Muslims. To extend its influence towards Arab states, Tehran will primarily rely on the Shiite minorities in Iraq, Lebanon and the Emirates, extending support to the Houthi rebels’ cause in Yemen.
During Israel’s withdrawal from most of Lebanon in 1985 (Israeli forces invaded Lebanon in 1982 and withdrew in 1985 to the border strip in southern Lebanon where they established a “security zone”), Tehran’s strategists planned the establishment of an Islamic Republic in Beirut, leveraging the Twelver Shiite community, which roughly constitutes one-third of the country.
In fact, there will be no Islamic Republic of Lebanon, but, supported and strengthened by Tehran, Hezbollah will indeed emerge as a de facto state within a state, as well as an essential strategic base for the mullahs who will send hundreds of Revolutionary Guards to the Land of the Cedars. For there lies another paramount objective persistently reaffirmed: the destruction of the “Zionist State,” described by the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, as a “cancerous tumor on Islamic land.”
This will legitimize – starting from the 2000s, – the support for Hamas in Gaza, a Sunni movement stemming from the Muslim Brotherhood. While it’s plausible that Iran may not have been directly involved in the most horrific aspects of the October 7 attack against the kibbutz, there is little doubt that lately, Hamas militias have been equipped and trained by Tehran with the backing of its proxy, Hezbollah. Hence, Israel’s announcement of its intention to file a complaint against Iran with the International Court of Justice.
A Series of Terrorist Acts
The Islamic Republic will stop at nothing to spread its “spiritual message.” Since 1981, Western intelligence services believe that most of the Islamic Republic’s embassies serve as a support network for terrorist operations. Numerous indicators point to Tehran as the mastermind behind the attacks on Paris in 1985/1986, orchestrated through Hezbollah’s logistical network, aimed at pressing France to cease its intervention in Lebanon and to also end its support for Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran.
The explosives used were identical to those used in the 1983 suicide bombings against the French and American forces stationed in Beirut, which resulted in nearly 300 casualties. Prior to driving the truck laden with 10 tons of explosives into the Marines’ building, the kamikaze driver flashed a broad smile at the guardsman stationed at the entrance — the notorious “smile of joy” that a Shiite martyr is supposed to wear at the moment of the ultimate sacrifice.
In a sermon aired by Radio Tehran in 1986, the future president of the Republic, Hashemi Rafsanjani, stated, “The Americans rightly hold us accountable for the blow dealt to them in Lebanon and their humiliation. If the American Marines and French paratroopers had to flee Lebanon, and if, under these circumstances, some of them lost their lives, is a result of the Islamic Revolution’s influence.”
Gaining insight into the inner workings of the Iranian government can be challenging due to the various clashing inner factions. While Iran’s influence is evident in countries like Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen, it often operates subtly and covertly. Many actions are carried out under its banner without the full supervision of the mullahs. The unprecedented action on October 7 may have been encouraged with the aim of sabotaging the Abraham Accords, which seek to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran continues to be a disruptive force, both directly and indirectly, in an already volatile region. Since the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq in 2011, Shiite militias have exerted considerable influence in the country. Meanwhile, in Syria, units of the elite force, al-Quds, sent by the Revolutionary Guards to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime against ISIS, frequently engaged in skirmishes with American troops stationed in the region for similar reasons.
In late January 2024, a drone strike hit an American base on the Syrian-Jordanian border, resulting in the deaths of three American soldiers. In response, Washington launched airstrikes on 85 sites in Iraq and Syria, known to harbor pro-Iranian groups. This was a clear message to Iran, which, in the face of heightened American threats since October 7, has also displayed pragmatism by restraining the ambitions of its allies, notably Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, to avoid dragging the region into a conflict with unpredictable consequences. The nuanced remarks of Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, reflect quite accurately Tehran’s unease.
An Isolated Country
Overall, the strategy of expansion allowed the Islamic Republic to extend its military presence beyond its borders through a network of allies and proxies, and establish what is known as the Axis of Resistance, aimed at countering both the West and Israel. Yet, has the current Iran – led by the mullahs – truly achieved the messianic objective set by the Mahdi’s delegate? Undoubtedly, for the past 45 years, Iran’s neighbors have been destabilized by Tehran’s orchestrated Shiite awakening. Yet, the situation seems to have reached a stalemate. The religious message has become entwined with military and political actions, while the fervor for exporting the revolution has waned. Today, trapped by its ideology, Iran is an isolated country, condemned by the international community, a nation suffering from the “besieged syndrome.” Today, its wish to possess nuclear weapons seems more like a means of deterrence to ensure the regime’s survival than motivated by a quest to ascertain Islam’s triumph worldwide.
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