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Elie Valluy, Paris-based correspondent for This Is Beirut, interviewed David Rigoulet-Roze, a research associate at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and the editor-in-chief of the magazine Orients stratégiques, regarding the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Paris.
Mohammed bin Salman, commonly referred to as MBS, is making his second visit to Paris within a year, following his previous trip in July 2022. The Saudi Crown Prince arrived in the French capital on June 16 for a ten-day visit, which the Saudi royal palace described as an “official state visit” in a statement.
On Friday, June 16, MBS held a business lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron at the presidential Élysée Palace. The meeting covered a wide range of topics, including the war in Ukraine, climate change and French-Saudi bilateral relations and partnerships.
Furthermore, the discussions tackled the Lebanese crisis, an issue closely monitored by both powers. Political instability has reached a critical point in Lebanon over the past few months due to the inability of Lebanese lawmakers to elect a head of state. Despite the holding of a 12th session to elect a president on June 14, no progress has been made in this regard.
Riyadh and Paris are both members of the “Group of Five,” alongside Qatar, Egypt and the US. This group is engaged in ongoing consultations aimed at helping Lebanon end the deadlock that has left the country without a president for over seven months.
According to a statement from the Élysée Palace, both Macron and MBS “reiterated the need to promptly end the institutional political vacuum in Lebanon, which remains the major obstacle to resolving the country’s severe socio-economic crisis.”
How can Paris and Riyadh contribute to ending Lebanon’s impasse? Could the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran play a role in finding a solution to the crisis?
On June 7, Macron appointed Jean-Yves Le Drian, the former French Minister of Foreign Affairs, as the “personal envoy for Lebanon.” The objective of this appointment is to “facilitate” a “consensual and effective” solution to the severe political deadlock plaguing the country, given the vacancy in the presidential post since October 31, 2022. The latter is a result of the obstruction of the Shiite duo Hezbollah-Amal, both of whom represent Iranian interests in the Lebanon. However, the normalization that took place between Riyadh and Tehran on March 10, 2023, could offer possibilities for a way out of the crisis, suggesting a potential easing of regional conflicts between the two geopolitical rivals. Until now, the two countries have been engaged in proxy battles across various regional arenas, including Yemen with the Houthi rebels. Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, which was officially reintegrated into the Arab League on May 19, marked the end of a decade-long bloody civil war. Why wouldn’t Lebanon benefit from this rapprochement as well?
When talking to his successors, the late King Ibn Saud used to refer to Lebanon as the Saudis’ “second homeland.” However, the current Saudi governance under MBS appears to be less invested in Lebanon’s future. Reducing the Shiite influence over Lebanon could pave the way for the appointment of a new president, especially considering that on June 17, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan embarked on an official visit to Tehran, during which all of these issues are likely to be addressed.
What is the purpose of MBS’s visit to the French capital? Is it a charm offensive?
MBS’s visit to the French capital is not solely a typical charm offensive but rather an opportunity for him to further his image rehabilitation. The visit’s timing has been adjusted, moving it forward from its original date of June 19th, coinciding with Saudi Arabia’s official bid submission for the 2030 World Expo. MBS plans to extend his stay until June 23 to attend the summit on the “new global financial pact” taking place in Paris. As an “official state visit,” his meeting with Macron provides a platform to discuss significant regional and international matters.
Regarding the overall French-Saudi relations, what can be said about this second visit in less than a year for MBS?
As emphasized by the French ambassador to Riyadh, Ludovic Pouille (on Twitter), the visit presents an opportunity to reinforce the strategic partnership between France and Saudi Arabia, which was officially formalized on April 10, 2018, between the French President and the Saudi Crown Prince. This visit comes in line with strategic partnerships with other Gulf petro-monarchies in general. It is worth noting that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) holds significant influence within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and MBS has emerged as an indispensable player. He currently stands at the crossroads of ongoing geo-economic and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and beyond.
What were the key points discussed during MBS’s official visit to Paris?
The consequences of the war in Ukraine, with a particular focus on the oil variable. In this context, the KSA, often referred to as the “Kingdom of Black Gold,” might no longer hold the title of the world’s top oil producer, but it remains the leading exporter, with a daily export volume of nearly 7 million barrels. This grants the KSA an even more significant strategic status, especially considering that Western nations have decided to reduce their reliance on Russian oil. The aim is to ensure the security of supplies from other providers, even though Saudi oil accounts for “only” around 8% of French imports. Moreover, there are considerations beyond energy-related matters that are taken into account.
The discussions also tackled the potential role that MBS could play in certain issues. Undoubtedly, France has some expectations in this regard, notably concerning the war in Ukraine. President Macron would like the Crown Prince to act as an intermediary to garner greater attention and support for Ukraine from countries in the “Global South”. So far, these countries haven’t budged an inch from “neutrality” vis-a-vis Russian aggression. It so happens that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unexpected move during the Arab League summit in Jeddah on May 19, upon the invitation of the Crown Prince, before heading to the G7 summit in Hiroshima aboard a French plane. This impromptu visit allowed him to express his expectations to countries in the Middle East and the Near East, most of which have deemed that the war in Ukraine is “not their own.” As such, Macron considered this summit a potential “turning point” in rallying support from certain countries in the “Global South,” including Saudi Arabia. In this regard, MBS acted as a go-between by allowing President Zelensky to address the Arab League and gain explicit support from Saudi Arabia and several regional powers.
