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On the eve of the scheduled resumption of ceasefire talks concerning Gaza, Israel launched an attack on Al-Tabieen school in the eastern Gaza Strip, killing over a hundred displaced people in a single strike. This massacre is likely to impact the negotiations set to begin on the 15th of this month according to the American-Qatari-Egyptian trilateral statement. Will this latest bloodbath derail the talks? Furthermore, will it trigger a broader regional war, and if so, how and when might the countries and militias of the Iranian axis respond to Israel? Or will the response be limited to a “calculated and measured” retaliation by Hezbollah within the “rules of engagement” to prevent the outbreak of war?
All these questions await clear answers from Hezbollah. Political sources close to the pro-Iranian militia suggest that, “It would be wiser at this stage to remain calm until the situation becomes clearer, and to steer through this period with minimal losses”. Diplomatic sources indicate that “no one will be drawn into war, and the situation will remain in a state of neither war nor peace until a diplomatic solution is reached.” Given the recent statements by Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, it seems increasingly certain that there will be no war in the region, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to instigate one.
Hezbollah’s response to Israel’s strike in the Southern Suburbs (Dahiyeh) and the assassination of Fouad Shukr in it’s own stronghold is under careful consideration. Nasrallah implied a calm and thoroughly studied response, and highlighted that the only country belonging to the above-mentioned Axis that will respond to Israel is Lebanon. Iran is not duty-bound. to retaliate or engage in the confrontations, and Syria is not in a position to respond due to its internal situation. Therefore, the response will only fall on Lebanon, without the involvement of other “Obstructionist Axis” countries or militias.
An Arab official acknowledges that the current regional developments are closely linked to the US presidential race. Netanyahu’s actions are aimed at supporting Donald Trump’s campaign. Meanwhile, Iran is working to support Democratic Candidate Kamala Harris in hopes of finalizing a new nuclear agreement. The original deal, signed under the Obama administration in 2015, lasts for ten years, and Iran is seeking to extend it for another decade before it expires in 2025. This move aims to avoid complications, particularly if Trump returns to the White House, as he is expected to reject a renewal of the agreement in line with Israel’s refusal.
Following the death of President Ibrahim Raisi, Iran sought to convey its intention to de-escalate by turning to the reformist President Massoud Pezikshian. The latter seemed more open and committed to a strategy of calm and restraint. French President Emmanuel Macron urged Pezikshian to avoid escalation, stressing that it serves no one’s interest, especially not Iran’s. Macron emphasized that Iran needs to effectively change its approach and policies.
Moreover, Iran has turned to reformists, placing them prominently in the political spotlight while still under the Supreme Guide’s control, to send a clear message to the outside world, especially to Washington. This message conveys Iran’s intention to engage more with the Western world and its willingness to modify its political approach.
The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has raised critical questions that Tehran needs to address to uncover the truth about the incident. This is particularly important since Haniyeh was a guest of the Revolutionary Guards and was in a location under their direct control and surveillance. How did the assassination occur –was it by missile, shell, or explosion? Notably, Haniyeh had no intention of staying in Iran and planned to return to Doha. How did the operation unfold? Was there a security breach or a possible conspiracy involved?
Likewise, in Lebanon, the assassination of Fouad Shukr in his stronghold in the southern suburbs through an intelligence operation has sparked numerous questions. Alongside these events, many questions have also arisen about the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as the head of Hamas’s political bureau, succeeding Haniyeh. Is this move intended to expedite a ceasefire in Gaza? Yahya Sinwar, a key figure in Hamas known as the “tunnels chief” and supported by Iran, led the Aqsa Flood operation and is wanted by both the US and Israel.
In this context, Palestinian circles view Yahya Sinwar’s appointment as a message to Israel, signaling that it must change its approach in the region. They believe this move will complicate the situation, making it even more challenging. American sources have stated that the appointment is not conducive to a ceasefire in Gaza, as proposed by Biden, as it seeks to maintain Hamas’s control over the territory. Amid these developments, and with Nasrallah indicating that Hezbollah’s response is inevitable, Washington has moved forward with Biden’s ceasefire proposal, announcing a truce for mid-month after Israel approved it. Israel has decided to dispatch negotiators to Doha or Cairo to take part in talks.
The various parties involved—ranging from Iran and Israel to Hamas and Hezbollah—have shown a growing willingness to pursue a ceasefire and avert a potentially catastrophic war. This urgency is reflected in the calls from countries for their citizens to leave Lebanon. Furthermore, despite Netanyahu’s escalating rhetoric and the transfer of Hamas’s file to Sinwar, who has appointed Khalil al-Hayya as his representative in indirect negotiations, diplomatic sources confirm that Iran will not become involved in the conflict. Should Iran choose to retaliate, the response is expected to mirror its reaction to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Meanwhile, the US has increased its military presence in the region. Additionally, reports indicate that a US security delegation, facilitated by Oman, traveled to Iran on a private jet that took off from Turkey and landed at Payam Airport in Karaj, west of the capital. During their meetings with Iranian officials, the delegation emphasized that Washington was not aware of Haniyeh’s assassination and that Biden is displeased with Netanyahu’s actions. Both sides confirmed that Washington does not seek war and is working to resolve disputes through diplomatic means. The question remains: will the American effort succeed in securing a ceasefire in Gaza?
