Listen to the Article
Does the change “in style” in the French approach, as embodied by Jean-Yves Le Drian, indicate a shift “in substance” as well? The personal envoy of President Emmanuel Macron abstained from mentioning the previous Paris-supported initiative. Instead, he sounded his interlocutors about the idea of a “centrist candidate in the framework of a consensus backed by France.”
The approach adopted by Jean-Yves Le Drian, the “personal” envoy of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon, stands out as serious and meticulous. The former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense devotes over an hour to each Lebanese official he meets, engaging them with precise and comprehensive questions while diligently documenting their responses. The manner in which the Lebanese presidential issue is being approached, coupled with the media silence surrounding it, unmistakably shows a change in French methodology.
According to numerous observers, Paris has been actively backing, for several months now, an “initiative” it launched, based on the proposition to elect Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of Marada, as President of the Republic, and appoint Judge Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister.
After initially considering this initiative as the only realistic option, it seems that France has now acknowledged that its prospects for success are limited. The initiative failed to secure support from countries closely involved in Lebanon, most notably Saudi Arabia. Additionally, it faced staunch opposition from a diverse array of Lebanese leaders and political parties.
Transition from Durel to Le Drian
President Macron’s selection of a person who is highly knowledgeable about Lebanon as a “personal messenger” reflects a crystal-clear recognition of the necessity for a fresh, new approach. In contrast to the previous “one-to-one” meetings led by Patrick Durel, the advisor for North Africa and the Middle East at the Élysée Palace, Jean-Yves Le Drian came to Beirut in the framework of “a solemn mission” undertaken by an envoy, in charge of a “mission”.
Le Drian’s visit reminds of the two journeys undertaken by President Macron himself to Lebanon, in the aftermath of the devastating explosion at the Beirut port on August 4, 2020, and less than a month later. These visits showcased Paris’ unwavering dedication and genuine care for Lebanon, a sentiment that the French President has consistently emphasized on numerous occasions.
Many events can be placed within this context, notably the conferences organized by the Élysée Palace to provide vital humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, or Emmanuel Macron’s personal visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017, to help former Prime Minister Saad Hariri overcome “obstacles” he faced to leave Riyadh.
Style and Substance?
Do these contrasting approaches between Durel and Le Drian also indicate disparities in substance? Sources close to the political leaders who met with the French envoy on Thursday suggest that the “French initiative” was noticeably absent from the discussions. No candidate’s name was mentioned, and the proposed “Frangieh-Salam trade” was not even brought up during the conversations.
Sources close to the Lebanese Forces party think that Paris has abandoned the “Frangieh option” after carefully evaluating the unfavorable parliamentary, national, and popular dynamics surrounding it. On the other hand, sources close to Speaker Nabih Berry’s Amal movement disclosed that the Marada leader’s name did not come around in the discussion with Le Drian “since France is well aware of Amal’s unchanged position and unwavering support for Frangieh.”
A Centrist Candidate ?
On Thursday, Le Drian met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil. He also hosted former ministers Sleiman Frangieh and Ziad Baroud, both of whom received votes in the last election, with Frangieh receiving 51 votes and Baroud securing 6 votes.
Le Drian’s asked key questions to his interlocutors, namely: “What measures can be taken to rescue Lebanon? How can we prevent electoral obstruction? Is there any constitutional mechanism?”
In the absence of such a mechanism, Le Drian inquired whether they would consider the possibility of “endorsing a centrist candidate in the framework of a consensus supported by France.”
According to sources close to the Lebanese Forces, their response to the question was as follows: “It depends on the candidate, his career, his role, his contacts, and his capacities.”
On Friday, Le Drian will ask the same questions to officials he is scheduled to meet, including Samy Gemayel of the Kataeb Party, Teymour Joumblatt of the Democratic Gathering Bloc (Progressive Socialist Party), and former deputy and presidential candidate Michel Moawad. Additionally, he will engage with representatives from Hezbollah, the National Moderation Bloc, the Change Bloc, as well as independent figures. He will also hold meetings with the ambassadors of France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, the five countries that participated in the Paris meeting about Lebanon held on February 6.
Assisting a Country in Peril?
This visit marks the kick-off of Le Drian’s new mission. Following his meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai, he emphasized that he is not carrying any preconceived solution while expressing his determination to exert all possible efforts to swiftly assist Lebanon in overcoming its political impasse.
Upon his anticipated return, within a month, there are high expectations that Le Drian would introduce a fresh initiative. Will the French official who openly criticized the Lebanese leaders in 2021 for their attitude towards their nation, be able to effectively deliver much-needed “assistance to this country in peril”?
