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The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) is unraveling. Despite this breakdown, a complete collapse seems unlikely due to the steadfast loyalty of its popular base. Unfortunately, this fracturing is happening under the watch of former President Michel Aoun.
Many expected that the party would lose significant support after Aoun’s presidency, especially as some MPs are uncomfortable with his continued influence but are unwilling to distance themselves as long as he remains active in politics. Elias Bou Saab, however, could no longer tolerate the internal practices of FPM leader Gebran Bassil, leading to his frustrated departure. Alain Aoun followed suit, and Simon Abi Ramia also left in protest against the ongoing turmoil within the party. Several other MPs have expressed a desire to leave but are holding back for various reasons, waiting for the right moment.
The issue lies with the party’s justifications. FPM supporters launched an online campaign, directing various accusations at the outgoing MPs, labeling them as “Berri’s MPs” or “Shaghouri’s MPs.” However, what has been overlooked is that Simon Abi Ramia and Alain Aoun have been serving as MPs since 2009, enduring numerous crises and accusations during the 2019 revolution while remaining steadfast. Their departure reflects dissatisfaction with the party’s unilateral decision-making. Meanwhile, the parliamentary bloc currently consists of MPs who remain loyal to Gebran Bassil, come what may.
On the other hand, the public struggled to reconcile the contradictory reactions. They lambasted the Lebanese Forces (LF) for seeming to revel in the departure of the FPM MPs, conveniently forgetting how they reacted when two LF MPs previously did the same. The situation has come full circle.
In a nutshell, the FPM held over 70% of the popular representation when General Aoun returned to Lebanon in 2005. This percentage dropped to 50% after he signed the Mar Mikhail agreement with Hezbollah in 2006 and further decreased in the 2009 elections.
The percentage further dropped to 35% in the 2018 elections, following the first two years of Aoun’s presidency, which were marked by issues such as the naturalization decree and controversial deals with the ruling authority involving power ships, dams, and appointments. By 2022, the FPM’s popular support had plummeted to less than 20% of the Christian vote. Nevertheless, the party secured six seats with the help of its allies, particularly Hezbollah, in Beirut II, Western Bekaa, Zahleh, and Baalbek-Hermel, even though other candidates received more preferential votes than the FPM’s own candidates.
With the resignation of three MPs, the FPM’s effective representation has dropped from 19 to 16 MPs, and without relying on external votes, it stands at 10 MPs. This situation does not spell the end of the party, as it will still be able to win over MPs. However, it marks the end of the myth of its dominant influence. Gebran Bassil is no longer as politically influential as Sleiman Frangieh.
