Listen to the article
As the region hovered on the edge of a serious escalation between Hezbollah and Israel that could set the whole Middle East ablaze, international efforts are intensifying to prevent such a potential disastrous conflict. The visit of the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to Lebanon last week was dubbed the “ultimate attempt to save Lebanon.” Nonetheless, his mission was ultimately thwarted by entrenched power struggles and (official) Lebanon’s alignment with the so-called “Resistance” axis, also known as the Moumana’a.
In 2021, Pope Francis failed to stop in Lebanon after a historic visit to Iraq, but today, his Secretary of State made the trip. Invited by the Order of Malta for a spiritual visit, Parolin chose to address Lebanon’s challenges personally. He emphasized that “the Vatican stands firmly with Lebanon, a country of great significance for the Pope.” This commitment is rooted in Lebanon’s embodiment of the Document on Human Fraternity and World Peace signed by Pope Francis and the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayyib, in the UAE in 2019. The Vatican believes that Lebanon is “a beacon of coexistence between Islam and Christianity, a model for inter-cultural dialogue, and an example of religious tolerance.”
Parolin’s visit came at a time when the region is witnessing deep changes amid the absence of a key element in the Middle East — the Christians. This is compounded by the absence of the only Christian president in the region, which also sidelines Lebanon, triggering fears that the marginalization of Christians may be intentional, at the detriment of Lebanon and its Christian community. Two issues of concern should be highlighted during Parolin’s visit to the seat of the Maronite Church in Bkerke: the Shiite community’s boycott of Patriarch Beshara al-Rai’s “national gathering” and the absence of Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea and Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel, who both sent representatives. The Free Patriotic Movement’s (FPM) leader, Gebran Bassil, and Marada Movement leader, Suleiman Frangieh, on the other hand, attended the meeting.
The absence of Geagea and Gemayel underscores the deep divisions within the Christian community, whereas the Shiite community’s boycott, following al-Rai’s remarks about “terrorist operations in the south,” was seen as a clear message to the Vatican: “We are the ones in control of Lebanon.”
Political sources within the pro-Hezbollah March 8 alliance argue that “the presidential election is a minor detail within the broader regional solution,” despite the party’s claim that the election is not linked to the war in Gaza or the military operations in the south. LF sources viewed Geagea’s absence from Bkerke’s meeting as a message to Parolin, suggesting that the responsibility for failing to elect a president lies with the Shiite duo and not the Christians.
The presidential dossier is interwoven with regional agendas that Hezbollah adheres to, despite its claims of the contrary. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s insistence on having a pre-election and Hezbollah’s backing of Suleiman Frangieh as the sole candidate are hindering the electoral process. The Shiite duo is well aware that Christian parties are against the dialogue and insist on following the constitutional process, a matter that was underscored by Parolin, who stated: “There is a constitutional framework for the presidential election process that must be respected.”
It has been a year and a half since the 12th and last presidential election session took place on June 14, 2023. Parliament has since failed to convene due to a lack of consensus on a candidate. An LF source contended that agreeing on the president, even under a consensus-based system, undermines the constitution, which calls for election rather than consensus. He further explained that “while consensus may be achieved during the session, it should, however, not be a precondition for parliament to convene and elect a president.”
Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab League Hossam Zaki, who visited Lebanon last Saturday, stated that “backing Lebanon is a priority for the Arab world” and warned of the danger of a war that could devastate Lebanon, Israel, and the entire region. However, what truly stood out during Zaki’s visit was his declaration that “the League has removed Hezbollah from its list of terrorist organizations,” referring to its perceived role in Lebanon’s future.
These developments come amidst escalating military tensions along the Lebanese-Israeli border, as Israel seeks to push Hezbollah away from the border through military means rather than diplomatic channels. Consequently, some foreign countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.
Meanwhile, Washington has stepped up efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza, increasing pressure on Lebanon and Israel to stick to the rules of engagement.
With the US presidential election campaign gaining momentum, there is no sign of an imminent solution or an inevitable war. Informed sources draw the line between unrestrained warfare and a controlled military escalation. “A major war is improbable due to its exorbitant cost and the potential devastation it would bring to Lebanon and Israel, potentially embroiling the United States in a conflict alongside Israel and jeopardizing its regional interests,” per a Western military expert.
