It is no longer a secret that the visit of the French President’s special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, “failed to achieve a major breakthrough on the presidential issue,” as confirmed by a Western diplomatic source to This Is Beirut.
However, this visit stands out from previous ones as it still prompted a slight shift in the stance of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Previously advocating for national dialogue under his leadership, he currently supports “parliamentary consultations” before the presidential election. Today, it is reported that he has agreed to let Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab moderate these informal discussions.
Despite recent reports suggesting pressure exerted by the Quintet’s members (the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar) for the election of a new president within the next two months, “There is still no clear roadmap to resolve the deadlock before the end of June,” as stated by the same source. This timeline was mentioned by Le Drian during his visit to Beirut. The French envoy warned against the disappearance of “political Lebanon” if officials failed to elect a new head of state by then. In other words, beyond this deadline, “The Lebanese dossier will no longer be a top priority for the international community, given the significant global changes being witnessed.”
Hence the imperative “to separate the Lebanese presidential dossier from the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel, as well as from the confrontations in southern Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Hebrew State,” explains the interviewed diplomat, before adding, “We are now banking on a national resurgence from the different parties involved, who should step up and assume responsibility, though this seems highly improbable at the moment.”
Transitioning From Dialogue to Consultations
During his various meetings with political leaders, Le Drian “extensively discussed, in detail, the format of the consultation process that could potentially lead to an agreement among the Lebanese for the election of a president,” as reported by the same source. It should be recalled that after persistently advocating for dialogue as a prerequisite to proceed with the presidential election, Speaker Nabih Berri eventually embraced the concept of parliamentary consultations preceding the electoral rally. These consultations would involve successive rounds of discussions until the election of a new president, “regardless of the outcomes of such exchanges,” as clarified by the diplomat.
When questioned about whether this change of terminology may change the facts, the answer was, “In practical terms, only the format changes, with consultations being less formal than a conference or national dialogue.” According to the diplomatic source, this signifies “a sort of dynamic engagement among the various actors involved in the presidential election, for which Le Drian has expressed readiness to serve as a mediator.”
Visit’s Accomplishments
In evaluating the success of Le Drian’s mission, the diplomat emphasizes that his visit was “within a specific framework, serving two main objectives: bolstering the Quintet’s dynamic and clarifying the latest developments surrounding the political deadlock and vacancy in the country’s highest office. This holds particular significance as the Lebanese dossier will be on the agenda of the upcoming international summit meeting scheduled for June 8, following the ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the 1944 Normandy landings.” During this summit, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron “will undoubtedly discuss the situation in Lebanon,” according to the Western source.
A new visit by Le Drian to Lebanon “has not been ruled out,” according to the same source. However, there are doubts about whether the recently concluded one will yield results before Lebanon completely disappears from the political chessboard.
