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As he embarks on his fourth official visit to Beirut starting this Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron’s Special Envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian is poised to highlight the importance of electing a president. This is crucial to ensure that Lebanon has a “say” in the regional political process following the ongoing war in Gaza.
Le Drian’s fourth mission (he is set to arrive in Beirut on Tuesday evening), for official talks with Lebanese authorities on Wednesday morning, will differ from the three preceding ones. His mission, centered on facilitating the election of a new President, now faces a crucial additional factor — the ongoing war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.
The October 7 events that led to clashes along the Blue Line between Israel and Hezbollah are likely to conclude with a regional “political process.” In this context, a French diplomatic source emphasizes the importance of Lebanon being legitimately and fully represented at the highest level by a President. They argue that this point is crucial if Lebanon wants to have a substantive role and a say in the discussions. The situation in South Lebanon and the implementation of United Nations Resolution 1701 will be among the issues discussed in the context of such a process.
This time around, Le Drian’s insistence on the “urgent need for the election of a President of the Republic” after 13 months of presidential vacancy, extends beyond internal Lebanese considerations. As explained by the aforementioned source, this urgency is driven today by regional and even global implications given the unfolding events in Gaza.
The timing for the upcoming regional political process, expected to unfold after the military and security phase, remains uncertain. The initiation of this process, a pivotal objective underscored by President Macron, is contingent on the situation on the ground. Despite a four-day truce, a formal ceasefire is still eagerly anticipated.
The War Looming over Lebanon
Of note, Le Drian has previously undertaken three missions to Lebanon in June, July and September of last year. During these visits, he engaged with Lebanese officials and parliamentary blocs involved in the presidential election.
Back in September, he urged both political camps – the March 8 Alliance and the opposition – to explore a “third option” for electing a president. Warning of the repercussions, he stressed that if an agreement wasn’t reached, the country, already grappling with a political crisis, would face an imminent threat to its very existence. In an interview with AFP, the French envoy highlighted the Quintet countries’ (France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt) growing frustration with what they perceived as a refusal by Lebanese officials to confront the harsh realities. He cautioned, “The very survival of the Lebanese state is at stake. Lebanon’s existence is on the line.” In a recent interview with France Info, the former French Foreign Minister voiced deep concerns over Lebanon’s current state. “I am deeply troubled by the situation in Lebanon. The shadow of war is looming over Lebanon. With no sitting President of the Republic and a caretaker Prime Minister handling only day-to-day matters, the government and the Parliament are inactive. The pressing question remains: Who is truly leading Lebanon? The alarming answer is—no one,” he underscored.
Small Steps
Is France really hopeful about being able to break the Lebanese presidential election, virtually stalled since June 14, the date of the last parliamentary session?
The major development during Le Drian’s third visit was the clarification of the presidential election mechanism. According to a French diplomatic source, this entails a session featuring successive rounds of voting until a head of state is elected. In a unique approach, deputies would remain in the chamber, steadily casting their votes until a president is elected, a process evocative of the persistence seen in a cardinal conclave until the election of a pope.
This procedure will help meet the necessary quorum for the presidential election. It’s crucial to note that the March 8 Alliance deliberately caused a quorum failure at the conclusion of the first round of each electoral session, thereby preventing the second round from taking place.
As for the “dialogue” advocated by France, the term has been substituted with “consultations” aimed at narrowing the differences between the political parties. The Lebanese opposition opposes the “multilateral dialogue” repeatedly sought by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, arguing that it would set a “dangerous precedent for Lebanese democracy.”
France expects to achieve further progress during Le Drian’s fourth mission. “With each visit, there’s an incremental step forward. If we can make even a modest advancement, it indicates we’re on the right path. While we acknowledge that not everything can be resolved overnight, there will be tangible outcomes from this fourth visit,” the aforementioned source said.
The Third Option
Is France still endorsing “the third option,” referring to a candidate who neither aligns with March 8 nor the opposition?
As per the aforementioned source, it is highly improbable for a regional or Western country to once again express a preference for one candidate over another.
It is worth recalling that France had initially supported a “presidential ticket,” under which Marada Leader Sleiman Frangieh would be elected president and Nawaf Salam would be appointed Prime Minister. This proposal was rejected by the opposition on the grounds that Frangieh was the designated candidate of Hezbollah and the Amal movement. The initiative also lacked support from other members of the Group of Five. During the June 14 session, the opposition MPs aligned themselves with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) on the candidacy of the senior official of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Jihad Azour. The latter secured 59 votes, compared to 51 for Frangieh.
As for the “third option,” Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun is the candidate most aligned with this option as he enjoys widespread backing both in Lebanon and among the Quintet members.
President- 1701 Deal?
Could France once again support the leader of the Marada after having endorsed the “third option”? “It all depends on the Lebanese as such and their alignment on the profile of the president, rather than his name. The options are open-ended.” The main issue according to the aforementioned source is not to stick to one specific name and not to veto anyone.
In this context, many opposition figures are concerned that some countries might opt to “reward” Hezbollah for not involving Lebanon in the ongoing conflict in Gaza by endorsing its presidential candidate, Frangieh. Lebanese Forces (LF) Leader Samir Geagea emphasized on Monday that “the presidency of the republic cannot be subject to negotiations or bargaining,” categorically rejecting any deal that would exchange “the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 for a president of the republic.”
Regarding this issue, the French diplomatic source emphasizes that these are “regional and international considerations that diverge from the French perspective.” “This is not how we perceive the situation. While Hezbollah is significant, it is not prioritized above other parties represented in Parliament. We do not favor one party over others, and the ultimate objective is for all parties to come to an understanding,” the source states.
France and the Quintet
France believes that Lebanon urgently needs a president to initiate an internal reform plan in close collaboration with the IMF. Le Drian will address this crucial matter with his counterparts, emphasizing not only the crucial need to form a government but also the urgency to fill all vacant or potentially vacant positions, especially at the Lebanese Central Bank and at the helm of the military institution. “It is a comprehensive approach; there is urgency, and the Lebanese must grasp the pressing nature of the situation,” according to the French diplomatic source, who underscored that Le Drian’s mission is carried out in close coordination with the Quintet members.
Furthermore, Le Drian maintains “constant contact” with officials from this Group of Five, and his ongoing tour encompasses a regional dimension. It is worth recalling that the French Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense visited Beirut in the wake of the Gaza war to caution against the risk of Lebanon becoming entangled in the conflict.
Will Le Drian’s 4th mission achieve a “breakthrough”? The next few days will unveil the answer to this question. While certain parliamentary sources minimize the significance of the French role, viewing Le Drian’s visit as an attempt to showcase Paris’ ongoing presence in the region, others point out that France remains the sole nation that genuinely cares about Lebanon.
