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With exactly two months left until the retirement of Army Commander-in-Chief, General Joseph Aoun, on January 10, the strategy that will be chosen to prevent a leadership vacuum at the head of the military institution is still uncertain. However, it appears that there is a growing inclination toward designating a Chief of Staff, tasked with serving in an interim capacity should the army command remain vacant. The position of Chief of Staff has been unfilled since last December. The discussions among different stakeholders might also result in a postponement of Joseph Aoun’s retirement.

The appointment of the Chief of Staff, a position reserved for a Druze, as well as the extension of General Aoun’s tenure, for a period that has not been determined yet, would be made by the government, according to informed sources.

About the Chief of Staff position, the name circulating is that of Hassane Audi, the highest-ranking Druze officer. With reported backing from the Progressive Socialist Party, he is poised to succeed Amin el-Orm, who retired on December 24. Should a vacancy occur at the helm of the army, the Chief of Staff, considered the second-in-command in the military institution, would step into the interim role. There is a precedent. After Michel Sleiman’s election as President of the Republic in 2008, General Chawki el-Masri temporarily led the army before the appointment of General Jean Kahwagi.

While this scenario currently appears likely, it remains unconfirmed, and alternative options are still being considered.

The Lebanese Forces Initiative

Last week, the Lebanese Forces put forth a draft law proposing extending the retirement age for any Army Commander-in-Chief to 61, up from the current age of 60. The Lebanese Forces clarified that the objective of this proposal is to keep General Joseph Aoun in his position during this crucial period, both politically and in terms of security.

However, the proposal has not garnered strong support from other parliamentary blocs. While Samy Gemayel, the leader of the Kataeb party, dealt a blow to this initiative by stating that any solution should come from the government rather than the Parliament, some sources suggest that discussions are underway among various factions of the sovereignist opposition to coordinate their positions.

The Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, has rejected the option of convening a session with a single item on the agenda, especially that the draft law was presented by a bloc that had abstained from participating in legislative sessions until the election of a head of state. Additionally, the proposal has faced criticism from certain parliamentary blocs for being tailored to benefit one specific person, namely General Aoun.

In this context, This is Beirut has learned that the National Moderation Bloc (North Lebanon, mostly composed of former Hariri supporters) is set to present a draft law on Monday, to delay the retirement of all heads of security services.

Aounist Initiative

Moreover, Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), has reportedly reached out to caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and other relevant parties to fill the vacant positions within the military council, the decision-making body in the army. The Aounist leader has gone a step further by proposing to the Cabinet the appointment of a new Army Commander-in-Chief and putting forth names of potential candidates.

The Minister of Defense, Maurice Slim, associated with the FPM, refuted on Thursday the claim of submitting a list of officers’ names to the Prime Minister. It is important to highlight that the authority to propose candidates for the military council rests with the Minister of Defense. Additionally, aside from the Chief of Staff position, the roles of Inspector General (Greek Orthodox) and Director-General of Administration (Shiite) are also vacant.

According to sources in the sovereignist opposition, Gebran Bassil’s openness to making such appointments, especially within a caretaker government and amid a presidential vacancy, totally clashes with the past positions of the FPM leader and his ministers on this matter. After having boycotted prior cabinet sessions and described each meeting and decision as illegal and unconstitutional, the Aounist Movement and its leader now appear willing to be part of them, simply to get rid of Joseph Aoun. Moreover, this is happening at a time when a bloody war is unfolding in Gaza, with Lebanese people fearing its potential extension into Lebanon.

Preceding this action, the FPM had rejected any extension of Joseph Aoun’s mandate or postponement of his departure, emphasizing that in the event of a vacancy, the highest-ranking officer within the military council would assume the interim role. The officer in question is Pierre Saab (Greek Catholic), who is said to be close to the FPM.

This option, however, has been rejected by several local parties and even by some foreign countries, notably the United States, according to multiple sources. This is likely what prompted Bassil to seek an alternative way to sideline Joseph Aoun, whose continued leadership of the army would bolster his chances of being elected president while totally diminishing the prospects for the leader of the FPM to attain the position, both presently and in the future.

Package Deal ?

In opposition circles, there are concerns that Gebran Bassil may be negotiating a “package deal” with the heads of the government and Parliament, as well as with Hezbollah, to appoint military council officers close to the FPM.

In a recent television interview, the former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Joumblatt, hinted at a coordination between the leader of the FPM and Hezbollah in this context. “Wafic Safa (the liaison and coordination official within Hezbollah) called me asking me not to embarrass Gebran Bassil,” the former MP declared.

Could it be due to his backing from Hezbollah that the Batroun MP is going to the extent of insisting on the necessity of having the signatures of all 24 ministers on any officer appointment decree, citing a precedent from the previous presidential vacancy?  Regardless, political sources believe that this demand is unlikely to be met.

Rai in Favor of Maintaining Aoun

In this context, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai has unequivocally expressed support for maintaining Joseph Aoun in his position. He stated this stance two days in a row. “It is shameful to consider the possibility of ‘bringing down’ the Army Commander-in-Chief, at the most crucial moment in Lebanon’s history,” emphasized the Patriarch in his sermon last Sunday, adding that such intentions “undermine the determination of the military institution, a source of trust and stability for citizens, and one that needs increased support.” On Monday, the Patriarch reiterated that it is imperative, “in order to preserve stability in Lebanon,” to strengthen the military institution, and “to maintain the army command in place until the election of a President of the Republic.”

This option receives strong support from certain quarters within the sovereignist opposition who express concerns that the FPM and Hezbollah could impose officers with close ties to them, in order to exert control over the army. There is apprehension that, in the event of a vacancy at the helm of the army, even if a Chief of Staff is appointed, he may not have the authority to exercise all the prerogatives of the Army Commander. Notably, Walid Joumblatt himself has openly stated a preference for a Commander-in-Chief to lead the army, rather than having the Chief of Staff assume an interim role.