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“There’s many a slip between the cup and the lip” … Without indulging into misplaced cynicism, this old French proverb captures perfectly the political-military quagmire in which Hezbollah and its regional “sponsor” have long been entrenched. Both players, highly active on the Middle Eastern stage—and at times far beyond—consistently display a media image that clearly shows they lack the real capacity to back up their political agenda. The reason is simple: their hands are tightly bound (militarily) by an international political “game” that far outweighs their grand ambitions.
The developments of the past eleven months clearly show that the fiery and warlike rhetoric from the key players in the Iranian camp amounts to little more than an empty shell. This is unsurprising, considering the significant imbalance of power, highlighted by the vast technological disparity between the Israeli-Western alliance and the so-called “obstructionist” axis.
Everyone recalls the warlike stance of Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, who repeatedly threatened to strike Haifa “and well beyond Haifa,” even brandishing the specter of “100,000 sophisticated missiles” aimed at Israel. But where could he possibly have hidden “100,000” missiles (!) in a country as small as Lebanon? (Unless, of course, he’s including the entire arsenal of the Islamic Republic!).
The concept of the empty shell can also be applied to the mullahs’ regime. It has become challenging to keep track of the number of times an extensive Iranian attack on Israel was deemed “imminent” without it ever materializing. Likewise, the threats and warmongering statements from high-ranking officials in Tehran are countless, yet this repeated aggressive posture has yielded no real results.
The only time the Islamic Republic launched a massive missile attack against Israeli territory was during the night of April 13-14. In response, the Israeli Air Force, along with the Western coalition led by the United States and even some Arab countries (notably Jordan), swiftly mobilized to thwart the attack. As a result, 99% of the 300 drones and missiles (both ballistic and cruise) fired by Iran were intercepted and destroyed before reaching Israeli air space. Meanwhile, in reaction to this thwarted attack, Israeli drones successfully carried out a raid on April 19 against the city of Isfahan, carefully avoiding damage to the city’s nuclear facilities.
On the Lebanese front, Hezbollah’s promised retaliation for the assassination of Fouad Shokr on July 30 ended in failure. The Israeli Air Force launched extensive preemptive strikes that quickly neutralized and minimized Hezbollah’s counter-offensive.
Clearly, the Iranian camp is unable to effectively confront the Western armada, Israel’s technological and aerial superiority, and the intense American pressure, in order to turn its threats and rhetoric into a serious military offensive, apart from engaging in futile attrition warfare or ineffective terrorist operations.
As of September 9, the mullahs’ regime and its regional allies’ bellicose stance has reached its twelfth month, and we are still far, very far, from Haifa or the “road to Jerusalem.” While the mullahs’ regime and its Lebanese base undoubtedly have a significant disruptive capacity, having destructive power is not enough; it must also be effectively applied in practice.
Over the past eleven months, it has become clear that the United States and its Western allies (particularly the United Kingdom and France) are committed to safeguarding Israel’s security, employing both military and political resources. Washington has deployed two aircraft carriers to the region, along with their destroyers and warships, a submarine armed with cruise missiles, F-35s, stealth F-22s, and tankers. Simultaneously, the US administration has shown its ability to exert significant political pressure to thwart any substantial attack plans against Israel.
Western military and political deterrence, especially from the United States, along with Israeli power, has effectively neutralized the Iranian camp’s offensive capabilities. Therefore, residents of Southern Lebanon, more than 100,000 of whom have been displaced, have valid reasons to question the need to boast about an impressive military arsenal. Amid the current explosive conflict affecting the region, that arsenal remains inactive and grounded due to an international political game that severely restricts the actions of Iran’s regional and local players.
It has become fundamental to acknowledge some harsh truths. The mullahs’ regime has systematically undermined the Palestinian cause—not intending to liberate any territory or supporting the creation of a Palestinian state, but solely to strengthen and cement the regional influence of the Islamic Republic. It must be recognized that this objective is, in reality, the true priority of Hezbollah’s actions since October 8, even at the expense of the vital interests, well-being, and survival of the Lebanese people.
