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3. Israel… War Until April

Israel has not yet achieved the military objectives required to enter negotiations. Consequently, it is expected to press on with efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s military and organizational structure, employing a scorched-earth strategy to create a 3-to-6-kilometer deep uninhabitable zone. According to Western diplomatic sources, after securing areas like Khiam and Bint Jbeil, Israel may set a deadline for compliance with its ceasefire terms. If Iran does not permit Hezbollah to negotiate, Israel is likely to shift operations toward the Kfarchouba-Shebaa regions.

Furthermore, Israel’s goal is to eliminate Hezbollah’s firepower to ensure settler safety and national security. This strategy includes sustained precision drone strikes on weapon depots, severing land routes between Syria and Lebanon, isolating regions, and executing targeted assassinations alongside systematic destruction. A Western military expert anticipates the conflict could extend into spring of next year, as Hezbollah’s arsenal is depleted under an intensified air, sea, and land blockade on Lebanon, preventing resupply. Importantly, the continuation of the war appears unaffected by any transition in US leadership.