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The results of the July 7 legislative elections have confirmed an unprecedented situation under the Fifth Republic. Three more or less cohesive blocs, none capable of dominating the other two to wield power, are gearing up for a series of consultations in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament, to prepare the new parliamentary session.
Attal’s last meeting
This situation began with the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who had already been rejected by President Emmanuel Macron the day after the second round. This decision was first announced during a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday at 1:30 PM, before being made official in the evening.
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Nevertheless, this configuration does not prevent the current team from handling routine affairs – at least during the Olympic Games and until a new prime minister is appointed.
The reason is that elected ministers will return to their parliamentary seats to participate in the election of the president of the National Assembly on Thursday. The following two days are dedicated to the allocation of strategic positions within it.
First, Friday’s session will be dedicated to the election of the members of the National Assembly Bureau, the institution’s highest body. Then, Saturday’s session will focus on the election of the presidents of the eight standing committees: legislations, national defense, foreign affairs, culture, sustainable development, social affairs, economy and finance.
Objective: The speaker’s chair
To achieve this, the MPs will have to agree on the person to take the “Perchoir,” the name given to the presidency of the Assembly. And this is where things get complicated: like the position of prime minister, this role will require intense negotiations given the current political fragmentation.
A part of the presidential camp is trying to build a majority to keep this key position. While all options remain conceivable at the moment, more attention is being directed towards the moderate right.
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At least, this is how Yaël Braun-Pivet, the presidential camp’s candidate for reelection, intends to win after failing to unite a “Republican Front” with the help of moderate left-wing parties.
Such an alliance would allow her to achieve her goal. Indeed, the election to the Perchoir usually takes place in three rounds. The first two rounds require an absolute majority, and if this is not achieved, a third round requires a relative majority.
In this context, a potential centrist alliance with the Republicans would surpass the number of votes of the New Popular Front (NFP).
NFP infighting
On the left, the unity preceding the second round is already fracturing between La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left) and the other members of the alliance, led by the Socialist Party (PS). Concerning the Perchoir, all the leaders agreed on the principle of a common candidate… which is yet to be determined.
The different actors that comprise the NFP wish to have more success than in the nomination of a candidate for prime minister. For the intense negotiations, conducted since the results of the second round, have so far yielded no consensus.
Worse still, the two camps seem unwilling to make compromises. LFI, which believes it has the right to the position as the majority party of the alliance, was the first to propose a candidate: Huguette Bello, president of the regional council of Réunion and member of the French Communist Party (PCF), although reputedly close to LFI.
In response, the PS immediately rejected the proposal, before proposing, with the PCF and the ecologists, the profile of Laurence Tubiana, a personality from civil society… whom LFI promptly dismissed. The reason being, a profile deemed too “Macron-compatible” by them.
Cloudy political horizon
In any case, Emmanuel Macron is expected to make his decision within the coming weeks, depending on the evolution of the political landscape. Unless a political alliance with an absolute majority emerges, he will have to rely on a bloc with a relative majority.
In such a context, the president has a discretionary choice, with great decision-making freedom. However, he must take into account the political balance, notably the majority in the National Assembly, as the new prime minister must be able to obtain the Assembly’s confidence.
Nevertheless, unlike in Lebanon, such a vote is not systematic in France. If the president does not take the Assembly into account, the new government would still be exposed to a subsequent censure motion.
If the NFP fails to decide, or if the presidential majority fails to reach an agreement with the moderate right, the coming weeks in the Assembly are likely to see the fog of war maintained in the chamber. Emmanuel Macron’s best card would then be a technocratic government… which would remain vulnerable to the other blocs.
