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French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian will reportedly visit Beirut at the end of September to continue his efforts related to the presidential election. This tour is part of his coordination with the Quintet (comprising the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt). It follows recent meetings with Saudi advisor Nizar al-Aloula and the Quintet’s ambassadors in Beirut.
According to sources involved with the Quintet’s efforts, it seems that a presidential election in Lebanon is unlikely before the end of this year. However, the last quarter will be pivotal for paving the way for an election early next year. The primary responsibility for this falls on the Lebanese parties, and any failure will be their own, not the Quintet’s, especially since Lebanon will face significant challenges, including potential regional political negotiations and resolution as well as upcoming parliamentary elections. It is worth noting that all Quintet members, particularly Saudi Arabia, remain committed to keeping Lebanon a top priority.
Furthermore, the Quintet is actively working to achieve Lebanon’s presidential election as a means to help the country escape the ongoing regional conflicts. The successful election of a president and the formation of a government are seen as opportunities for Hezbollah to shift its focus from the current war to addressing Lebanon’s deteriorating situation.
According to some information, Quintet members believe Hezbollah has become more pragmatic regarding the presidential election, having effectively delegated this responsibility to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. This has facilitated the Quintet’s efforts to find a breakthrough, especially as the gap between Berri’s proposals and those of the Lebanese Forces (LF) has narrowed. The Lebanese Forces propose holding an electoral session and, if it fails, transitioning to brief consultations, followed by an open-ended election process with successive rounds until a president is elected. This proposal has received the endorsement of Quintet members and Le Drian.
Within the Quintet, all parties have reached a consensus that no specific presidential candidate should be proposed or endorsed. The committee will instead concentrate on outlining the ideal qualifications for the future president. The priority is to identify a neutral candidate who is uninvolved with the country’s corrupt network and possesses the economic expertise required to develop a comprehensive solution to Lebanon’s crisis.
