Recent Israeli killings of key figures in Iran-backed groups have sparked tensions and led to predictions of imminent Iranian retaliation before August 15. The deaths of Hezbollah’s Fouad Shokr and Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh, respectively, have prompted strong reactions from both groups.
Iran has vowed revenge for the assassination of Haniyeh on its soil, calling it a violation of its sovereignty. During a televised speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah asserted that the group’s response to Shokr’s killing would be “a true response, not a superficial one.”
With Israel on high alert, western newspapers and intelligence sources warn of a potential Iranian strike as soon as Monday.
Before August 15?
According to the American news website Axios, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter asserted that the Israeli intelligence community’s updated assessment is that Iran is on the verge of attacking Israel directly and is expected to do so within days.
This timing could precede the planned Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks, expected to be held on the 15th of the month, adding tension to an already critical juncture in negotiations.
“The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks planned for Thursday, potentially jeopardizing negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a ‘now-or-never’ moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas,” Axios reported.
According to CNN, Israeli intelligence assessed Iranian forces could be planning an attack “within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks.”
Axios also reported that “a source with knowledge of the intelligence said the situation is ‘still fluid’ and the internal debate in Iran continues. It is possible Iranian decision-making will still change.”
Severity of the Attack
Politico reported that the same attack launched by Iran against Israel on April 13 will be unlikely, expecting that Iranian strikes could be through “intermediate-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles against Israeli targets.”
However, with an anticipated severe response coming from Iran, several media and intelligence sources questioned the readiness of the region for an escalation, focusing on Israel’s and Iran’s readiness for a war expansion.
It is worth mentioning that in a statement to the United Nations on Friday, Iran’s mission hoped the response to be “timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
However, according to Reuters, “Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said in a post on X, citing a source with knowledge of the call.”
In any case, the US is expressing confidence that Israel will be able to withstand any actions Iran may take in the coming days.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered an aircraft carrier group to hasten its arrival in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, as mounting tensions raise fears of a region-wide war.
“It is a show of support for key US ally Israel after Iran and Hezbollah group vowed to avenge last month’s killings of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shokr,” AFP reported.
