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According to diplomatic sources, tension along the Lebanese-Israeli front has markedly intensified, and the likelihood of further escalation in the war is now unmistakably real and no longer considered improbable. This follows the recent Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the tragic loss of seven Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials. Moreover, the subsequent Iranian threats, in which Hezbollah played a part, led the Israelis to ramp up military pressure against the party and to escalate interference, specifically targeting GPS systems, despite the collateral damage inflicted on Israeli society as well.
Furthermore, despite the escalating military tensions, efforts exerted by certain countries persist unabated to prevent a full-scale war in Lebanon. However, these efforts have yet to yield any notable progress and continue to face obstacles from both the Israelis and Hezbollah. There are currently no indications of envoys arriving in Lebanon to engage in the follow-up of these efforts on the ground. As such, US envoy Amos Hochstein is monitoring the situation from a distance and does not currently have plans to travel to Beirut any time soon. Similarly, the French envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and the French presidency recognize the interconnection between the presidential election and the situation of the war in the region.
In Lebanon’s context, the toll of losses stemming from the southern war on various fronts shall rise on various levels. Moreover, if the war were to escalate, the resulting catastrophe would be staggering. With current damages already totaling billions of dollars, Lebanon would find it impossible to manage. Furthermore, this figure could soar to tens of billions of dollars if attacks extended across all Lebanese territories, and the widespread destruction and casualties resulting from these attacks would leave Lebanon devastated and collapsed, with scant resources for recovery.
In addition, Hezbollah’s lack of awareness of this reality may be due to potential assurances of financial aid from the Islamic Republic of Iran to cover losses, or the party thinks it can pressure the state to compensate from Lebanon’s dwindling reserves in the central bank (BDL), even if it means accessing part of the gold reserves. According to the same diplomatic sources, the responsibility of those in power, particularly within the government and parliament, is underscored in preventing this destructive path from unfolding, especially if it becomes imminent.
The diplomatic sources mocked the government’s attempt to solicit humanitarian and non-humanitarian aid in connection with the southern war. They insisted that any assistance should hinge on Hezbollah’s cessation of the war it initiated against Israel and the genuine implementation of Resolution 1701. This, they stressed, is vital for establishing sustainable calm in the region and averting future threats.
