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What option will the Lebanese officials choose in order to avoid a vacancy in the Army’s leadership resulting from the retirement of the commander-in-chief, General Joseph Aoun, on January 10 next year? The answer to this question, which has been looming for weeks, is still not clear. It seems that even political leaders do not know yet. As Lebanon faces enormous security risks, adding to the political and financial crisis, several Lebanese actors prioritize their partisan interests over those of the country.
Even though different parties are active, confusion continues to reign. Will the solution come from the government or the Parliament? Will it involve all heads of security services, or will it only aim to keep General Aoun in his position for an additional period? Will the government appoint a chief of staff or also fill the three vacant positions within the military council, which is the body making decisions within the Army?
To these questions, the various concerned factions provide divergent answers. Within the same parties, responses change from day to day, indicating that the final decision has not yet been made.
Four Draft Laws
One thing seems certain: there will be no vacancy in the leadership of the Army.
The Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, told the delegation of the Lebanese Forces (LF), which he received on Monday, that he gives the government two weeks to settle this issue, committing to convene a parliamentary session if the Cabinet fails to resolve the problem.
He also specified that the draft law proposed by the LF bloc would top the list of draft laws of double urgency that will be included in the session’s agenda.
For information, this draft law extends the retirement age of any Army commander-in-chief to 61 instead of 60. The LF explained that the text aims to keep General Joseph Aoun in his position during this critical period, politically and security-wise. Currently, there are four draft laws in Parliament, more or less in the same direction, with different approaches.
Apart from the LF, the bloc of the National Moderation (Lebanon-North, mostly former Hariri loyalists) presented a draft law on Wednesday, under double urgency, postponing by one year “the retirement of security service chiefs, in office or interim, of the rank of general or major general.”
While the LF’s legislation only concerns General Aoun at the current stage, the National Moderation Bloc’s proposal would also benefit the Director-General of the Internal Security Forces, Imad Othman, who holds the rank of major general and is due to retire next May.
This proposal is supported by a large number of Sunni MPs and other blocs. When the bloc discussed it with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday, he reiterated that Parliament would act if the government does not.
As for the other two draft laws, one has been submitted for months by the parliamentary bloc of the Democratic Gathering (Progressive Socialist Party). It was resubmitted a few days ago, proposing a three-year extension of retirement for all Army and Internal Security Forces officers, regardless of their rank.
The last proposal was made by MP Adib Abdelmassih (Renewal) and foresees, like the PSP bloc’s proposal, the extension of retirement for all Army and ISF officers.
While the LF’s proposal could be subject to challenge as it appears tailored to one person, the other three are more general and could gather broader support.
Opposition Participation
If a parliamentary session takes place, the various draft laws will be put to a vote, and some might be withdrawn by their proposers.
The opposition, which so far refuses to participate in legislative sessions until the election of a President of the Republic, could attend the meeting if the problem of the Army command’s vacancy can be resolved.
According to some sources, these deputies might not participate throughout the session and only vote in favor of the text related to the Army. But here again, “it is too early” to decide, according to sources from opposition blocs.
Nevertheless, some believe that these various draft laws aim only to increase pressure, emphasizing that the solution will only come from the government.
In Government
Regarding the solution within the government, it is complicated by the Free Patriotic Movement’s refusal to keep Joseph Aoun in command of the Army. The leader of the FPM, Gebran Bassil, seeks by all means to remove Joseph Aoun, whose presence at the head of the Army would strengthen his chances of being elected president.
This is why the leader of the Aounist current has reportedly made contacts with the Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, and other concerned parties to fill the vacancies within the military council. He even suggested the Cabinet nominate a new Army commander-in-chief and proposed candidate names. This possibility did not receive significant political support, as several parties fear that Gebran Bassil might attempt to control the Army. Even the leader of the Marada, Sleiman Frangieh, with whom Bassil expressed “willingness to cooperate,” would reportedly be wary of any attempt by the latter to gain control of the Army, according to political sources.
It is worth noting that the prerogative to propose candidate names to the military council lies with the Minister of Defense. The current holder of this portfolio, Maurice Slim, is close to the FPM. Besides the chief of staff position, the posts of Inspector General (Greek Orthodox) and Director-General of Administration (Shiite) are also vacant.
In this regard, several parties favor the appointment of a chief of staff, considered the second in command in the Army. According to the law, he acts as an interim in case of a vacancy in command. For this position, the name of Hassane Audi, the highest-ranking Druze officer, is circulating. He would have the backing of the Progressive Socialist Party and would succeed Amin el-Orm, who retired on December 24th of last year.
At the same time, another factor comes into play: the opposition rejects any appointment made by the caretaker government during a presidential vacancy. Some components of the opposition, therefore, express their rejection of appointing a chief of staff, seen as necessary by most other MPs.
On his part, Mikati is trying to handle the issue calmly. He informed the ministers present at the Serail on Tuesday that the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers has prepared a legal and constitutional study on the most appropriate options to avoid a vacancy in the Army’s leadership.
Which option will be chosen? The answer will be known in less than two weeks, as promised by Nabih Berri.
