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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened intervention against Israel, on Sunday, in a speech at a party meeting in his hometown of Rize. He said: “We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do the same to them.”
Past Actions
Turkey has threatened to repeat actions in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh but this time with Israel. These actions, however, vary in their severity and Erdogan was not specific concerning what he had in mind. Turkey committed troops to a joint effort in Libya alongside the US, UK, and Italy. After the effort failed, it trained 3,000 Libyan troops and transferred weaponry to Tripoli secretly. Turkey also committed a few hundred troops as well as tactical support to aid the internationally recognized government in 2020.
In Nagorno Karabakh, Turkey did not directly intervene as it did in Libya. Instead, it stated in September 2023 that it was using “all means” to support Azerbaijan according to a Turkish defense official. The support consisted of training, through joint military exercises, army modernization, military equipment and organizational assistance. Among the equipment supplied to Azerbaijan were Turkish Bayraktar drones used for reconnaissance and precision strikes.
Israeli-Turkish Relations
Turkish-Israel relations have traditionally been awkward, characterized by harsh rhetoric and criticism, alongside sustained bilateral cooperation. Erdogan suspended diplomatic relations after an attack by the Israeli army killed Turkish civilians in a maritime effort to break the Gaza blockade in 2010. Turkey then began giving Hamas diplomatic support and providing shelter to Hamas leadership. Relations were only restored in 2022. Erdogan expressed his support for renewed bilateral relations alongside Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Despite this, Erdogan held a massive rally in support of Palestine on October 28, 2023. In his speech at the event, he attacked Israel and expressed support for Hamas, saying “I reiterate that Hamas is not a terrorist organization … Israel is an occupier.”
NATO’s Role
NATO, which includes Turkey alongside prominent Israeli allies like the US, would not be obligated to respond in the case of a Turkish attack on Israel under the organization’s Article 5 mutual defense clause. Tensions would, however, arise within NATO as Israel is a major US ally and has cooperated with it on many joint efforts. Israel is one of NATO’s ‘partner’ states and a member of its Mediterranean Dialogue, and according to the US think-tank Foundation for the Defense of Democracies “Over the last 30 years, Israel and NATO have expanded cooperation in areas including science and technology, counterterrorism, civil preparedness, and countering weapons of mass destruction.
Erdogan has also opposed Western military attacks against the Houthis and stated that the US and UK were trying to “turn the Red Sea into a sea of blood” in a speech in Ankara on January 12. He has maintained regular contact with Putin and bought Russian missile systems. America responded to the Turkish purchase by removing it from the F-35 fighter jet program in July 2019. A Turkish intervention in Israel might, therefore, prompt the US and other NATO members to respond.
Motivations Behind the Speech
While the way Turkey could intervene remains unclear, Erdogan’s speech, likely, has been used to energize his Islamist support base. This comes amidst disappointment from conservative and nationalist groups within Turkey regarding Erdogan’s initial response to the war. Erdogan’s ambitions also include being seen as a strong leader of the Muslim world; therefore, his fiery speech against Israel could be considered part of the wider effort to portray himself as the defender of Muslims regionally. Sari Ertem, an associate professor at Istanbul University, cited by the BBC, stated that these rhetorical attacks against Israel rarely alter Turkish foreign policy. She argues that Erdogan’s speech is in response to a growing demand by his constituents to take a harsher stance against Israel, however, she doesn’t think it will warrant any concrete action by the Turkish president.
