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More than 30 days after Hamas launched its Al-Aqsa Flood operation against Israel on October 7, which has since drawn an unrelenting onslaught on Gaza, the future of the world’s most densely populated enclave with 2.4 million inhabitants is uncertain and blurred.
Plans and ideas about Gaza’s future governance and security after the defeat of Hamas have been circulated by the United States, Israel and the European Union, but none presented a clear and realistic endgame.
Israel has set the target of wiping out Hamas, which has been in control of Gaza since 2007, as the sole condition for ending the war. But who will replace it?
Washington and other countries are looking at “a variety of possible arrangements” for Gaza’s future, including revitalizing the role of the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas whose Fatah movement was driven out of the enclave following bloody clashes with Hamas.
Abbas has reportedly not dismissed such an arrangement, on condition that a solution be reached including not only Gaza but also the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which are occupied by Israel.
However, there are several obstacles to this scenario, not least of which is Abbas’ waning popularity.
“I believe it is a proposal to boost the Israelis’ low morale, more than anything else, by giving the impression that Hamas is about to be eliminated and the war might be over soon,” says Anis Mohsen, a Palestinian analyst and writer with the Institute of Palestinian Studies.
He ruled out the possible return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, stressing that “if it seeks to regain control of the enclave at the cost of the people’s blood, it will be mobbed and lynched.”
The two-state solution, as conditioned by Abbas and evoked by certain Western countries, is a non-starter, according to Mohsen.
“Let’s suppose Israel comes out victorious and regains control of the whole enclave, do you think it will accept the two-state solution when it rejected it at the time it was plausible? That’s why it is impossible,” Mohsen contends.
The Hamas attack which killed more than 1,400 people dealt the biggest blow to Israel in its 75-year history. It also boosted Hamas’ popularity to the detriment of the increasingly embattled Abbas. More than 10,000 people, mostly children and women, have since been killed in retaliatory Israeli onslaught.
According to Mohsen, it is “too soon” to preview any future compromise. “Hamas is still resisting and clashing with the Israelis and inflicting losses on them despite the heavy bombardment. The war might drag on for months and no one can predict how it might develop. North Gaza is just 25% of the enclave, what about the remaining 75% where Hamas is also deeply entrenched?”
“It is simply illogical to brainstorm or propose scenarios for post-war Gaza at this stage,” he added.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated clearly that Israel’s security control of Gaza will last a long time, once Hamas is “wiped out.” Under such a scenario, Israeli forces would be imposing the same military control as in the West Bank through the establishment of military bases and checkpoints.
Regional scenarios were also evoked, including one that would involve entrusting the administration of Gaza to a kind of interim power made up of Arab countries that maintain relations with Israel, namely Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco.
Another scenario spoke of an “international administration with UN participation.”
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Gaza might become an international protectorate after the war, stating that neither the Palestinian group Hamas nor Israel should ever rule there again.
“Different ideas are being discussed on how this can be ensured, including an international peace force under UN mandate,” she said, adding that “there can be no long-term Israeli security presence in Gaza.”
Von der Leyen dismissed any forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, stressing that “it would only be a recipe for more regional instability.”
Israel’s massive destruction of Gaza has raised fears of a possible repetition of the mass displacement of Palestinians from the 1948 war for Israel’s establishment and the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi has warned against the forced displacement of Palestinians from their land into the Sinai Peninsula bordering Gaza, adding that any such move would turn the area into a base for attacks against Israel.
For Mohsen, “All these ideas and proposals are not realistic” and are “mere American fantasies.”
“If Gaza is wiped out, would the region remain as it is?” he asked, adding “I believe the face of the whole region would change then.”
