The 2024 Republican presidential race is shaping up to be reminiscent of the crowded 2016 field, with three establishment figures launching campaigns. The presence of multiple contenders increases Trump’s chances of winning by dividing the anti-Trump vote.
With three denizens of the Republican establishment launching presidential campaigns this week, the race for the 2024 nomination has begun to resemble the sprawling 2016 field that proved a massive boon to unfancied outsider Donald Trump.
This time the 76-year-old tycoon is the runaway front-runner, but the conventional wisdom remains the same: the larger the chasing pack, the more likely he is to win by dividing the anti-Trump vote.
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, trounced by Trump in 2016, is expected to launch a fresh tilt at the White House on Tuesday, a day ahead of ex-vice president Mike Pence and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
Christie, who will announce in New Hampshire, presents a novel challenge as the only contender willing to land genuinely damaging blows on Trump as he makes his case for four years in the Oval Office.
Trump revealed that he relished the chaos of a crowded field when he welcomed his severe first opponent, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, to the race in February, telling Fox News: “The more, the merrier.”
By midweek there will be 10 major candidates in the Republican primary and another four also-rans, but Trump has a 30-plus point lead over his closest rival, Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor.
Pence, Trump’s unwaveringly loyal vice president turned reluctant critic, is expected to launch his campaign on Wednesday, ahead of a CNN Town Hall in Iowa.
His launch, along with Christie’s, complicates the race less for Trump than for DeSantis, who has been on a charm offensive in the first-in-the-nation voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire as he bids to remain competitive.
The hard-line conservative is running to Trump’s right in what political analysts have called a “last man standing” campaign that banks on the former president being taken out of contention by the escalating legal threats he faces.
According to the theory, the strategy is essential to keep Trump’s supporters content by avoiding too much conflict and being best placed to mop them up when their man is forced to bow out.
But 44-year-old DeSantis has also begun to fire off explicit broadsides against his rival, questioning the front-runner’s commitment to conservatism, his effectiveness in office, and his prospects of victory against President Joe Biden.
Liberals watching the race with amusement and horror have been split between those cheering on Trump, believing he will be the easiest one to beat in the general election. Those who would rather see anyone else prevail, even if it means losing the White House.
Miroslava Salazar with AFP
