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Is the stalled presidential election progressing in parallel with American pressure to cease fire in Gaza and establish a humanitarian truce, to be renewed as necessary, and a halt to military operations in southern Lebanon? This follows the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate and the foreseen return of US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon to initiate the implementation of Resolution 1701 under the renewed mandate. All of this is happening just before the UN General Assembly’s meetings in September, and potential discussions on the sidelines.
Recently, there has been notable activity among the ambassadors of the five-nation committee, known as the Quintet (USA, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and France), who conducted behind-the-scenes meetings with political leaders and potential presidential candidates. Meanwhile, other meetings have been highlighted, such as Saudi Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari’s visit to House Speaker Nabih Berri at his residence in Ain el-Tineh on Saturday. Reports indicate that Bukhari left for Saudi Arabia after his meeting with Berri, and French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian is also scheduled to visit Riyadh for talks with Le Drian and Nizar Al-Alaoula (advisor to the Saudi Royal Court responsible for the Lebanon dossier). The presidential issue is expected to be on top of the talks’ agenda. Le Drian is likely to visit Beirut afterward, depending on the outcome.
In a similar effort, Egyptian Ambassador Alaa Moussa has been active on this issue. He has urged “Lebanese parties to cooperate, stressing the need to make tangible progress, resume dialogue, and address the details to achieve a concrete outcome in electing a new president.” Moussa also advocated for separating the Gaza issue from the Lebanese presidential dossier, stating, “Our goal is to advance on that issue, as electing a president will help alleviate the repercussions of the war.”
Meanwhile, a leading opposition figure believes that these efforts are unlikely to achieve any breakthrough in the near future. As long as military operations are ongoing in the south and Hezbollah’s priorities lie elsewhere, the presidency will remain on hold, awaiting a presumed “victory” by the pro-Iranian group, which it can then leverage to bolster its chances of imposing the election of a president of its choosing.
Diplomatic circles within the Quintet stress the need to stabilize the situation in Lebanon, notably in the south, by closing Hezbollah’s so-called support front for Gaza and adhering to the potential, but unofficial, humanitarian truce. Hezbollah’s recent response to the assassination of its top military commander, Fouad Shokr, and Israel’s preemptive strike, were carried out within the rules of engagement and did not escalate into a full-scale war.
This indicates that developments in the region are being regulated according to the American agenda and remain under control. The renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate could expedite solutions by advancing the phased implementation of Resolution 1701, under Hochstein’s supervision. The US special envoy will focus on securing the southern front and shielding Lebanon’s internal security and presidential process from external influences, emphasizing the need to separate Lebanon’s political crisis from the conflict in Gaza.
However, an opposition figure argues that as long as military activities persist on multiple fronts—whether in the south, Gaza, the West Bank or elsewhere—the presidential election will not be prioritized, while diplomatic efforts continue to isolate Lebanon from the broader regional crisis.
A diplomatic observer notes that the withdrawal of American naval and military forces from the region would signal the beginning of a ceasefire and a transition towards stabilization. Despite Iran’s fiery positions, which some interpret as a maneuver to enhance its leverage with the US in negotiations taking place in Oman, there is no immediate risk of war or escalation. Key players, particularly Iran’s military allies within the “resistance axis,” are expected to uphold the truce, provided Israel does the same in Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon. The American military presence serves as a critical “barometer” and primary indicator of the region’s future developments.
The Quintet’s ambassadors are working to relaunch the presidential process. French Ambassador Hervé Magro recently visited Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Gebran Bassil to discuss the latest developments within the movement, its relations with Hezbollah, and the fate of the presidential initiative that he had presented to the pro-Iranian group. The proposal suggested that Bassil withdraws his support to opposition candidate Jihad Azour. In return, the Shiite Amal- Hezbollah duo would give up their candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, in favor of a third candidate who would be backed by Bassil and reassuring to Hezbollah.
According to FPM sources, Bassil’s initiative includes three names for presidential candidates that he is determined to keep away from the media. Moreover, those who have resigned or been dismissed from the FPM have denied reports suggesting that they are backing Frangieh, due to considerations related to the upcoming parliamentary elections.
A former security official disclosed that one of the ambassadors from the Paris Quintet held a covert meeting with Frangieh during which he reportedly stressed the necessity of electing a president before the US elections in November, emphasizing that Lebanon cannot remain without a present, given the regional dynamics.
