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All Christian groups, including the Maronite Patriarchate , the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the Kataeb party and the Marada, have entrusted the fate of the position of Army Commander-in-Chief to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. So far, both leaders have yet to make a decision regarding the army leadership, as each one is trying to pass the ball into the other’s court.
PM Mikati has not included the matter of postponing the retirement of the army commander or appointing a new one on the agenda of the upcoming Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. There are no indications that Mikati will raise the issue unless a major unforeseen event occurs. Furthermore, the legal study prepared by the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, Mahmoud Makkieh, regarding the available options to prevent a vacancy in the army leadership, has not been distributed to the ministers for review and discussion.
Berri has emphasized that the responsibility lies with the government. As such, he informed his visitors that there are currently no plans to make any moves in this direction, especially within the Parliament, until Najib Mikati returns from his international engagements, including the climate summit in the United Arab Emirates. This period may extend until December 15.
In this context, many observers believe that a decision on the future of the army commander’s position might only come a few days before Joseph Aoun’s retirement on January 10. This suggests that the decision could be postponed until after the New Year, coupled with increasing pressure and urgency exerted by Christian groups supporting Joseph’s Aoun’s continued tenure. At that point, whether the decision is made in the Cabinet or in Parliament would be trivial.
In parallel, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai is said to have intensified his efforts with Berri and Mikati in recent days, with the aim of expediting the matter. The patriarch has reportedly received assurances that the issue will be resolved according to the wishes of the Christian majority and other Lebanese parties endorsing Joseph Aoun’s continued tenure. Discussions between the patriarch and Lebanese officials also underlined Western and Arab rejection of any vacancy at the helm of the military. These parties expressed support for General Joseph Aoun’s continued role, a sentiment that will also be emphasized by French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian when he visits Lebanon in the coming days.
