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Confirming Iran’s direct involvement in the offensive launched by Hamas against Israel on October 7 would not be suitable for the United States, as they seek to preserve a certain balance among the various regional stakeholders (enemies and allies) for reasons tied to their interests in the Middle East.
How might have Iran been involved in the preparations for the “Al-Aqsa Flood” offensive launched by Hamas against Israel last Saturday? Five days into the armed conflict between the pro-Iranian Palestinian group and Tel Aviv, this question remains unanswered.
Tehran has firmly denied any involvement at this level, but some indications suggest otherwise, with a notable focus on the level of preparation by Hamas and the resources it had at its disposal to carry out its offensive. However, as the region steers towards major transformations, linked to the Saudi-Israeli or Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, many would rather believe that Hamas managed to independently prepare its kamikaze operation. This would definitely avoid further complications.
Therefore, the investigation carried out by US intelligence services to find evidence that could determine whether Iran played a direct role in the attack against Israel serves a specific purpose: to prevent the United States from engaging in a confrontation with Iran. This theory was put forth by retired General Khalil Helou who explains to This is Beirut that “from an American perspective, ‘stability’ in the Middle East involves maintaining an imbalance in regional forces.” According to him, Washington always seeks to maintain a certain balance among the various regional stakeholders (both enemies and allies) to serve its interests in the Middle East.
Even if the United States were indeed inclined to turn a blind eye to a confrontation with Iran, many factors still reinforce the argument that Tehran may have played a direct role in the planning and execution of the October 7 offensive.
Iranian Know-How and Regional Politics
In light of Hamas’ present state, it is undeniable that the Palestinian group does not have the capabilities to manufacture, on its own, the missiles and drones used in the attack. “The weapons used reflect a certain know-how ascribed to Iran,” indicates General Helou.
It is widely known that, for years on end, Iran has provided Hamas with extensive support, both technical and ideological, and that it is its primary “supplier” of weapons and “financial supporter” with aid totaling tens of millions of dollars.
In this regard, it is worth noting that in 2022, Hamas received approximately USD70 million from Iran, as reported by the Palestinian party’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh. This funding was confirmed by the US Department of State which, in a report published in 2020, highlighted the amounts provided by Tehran (USD100 million annually) to Palestinian groups, including Hamas.
However, does this support from Iran represent enough evidence to confirm its direct interference in the war between Hamas and Israel?
“In light of the recent developments in the Arab world, one can understand Iran’s fear of becoming marginalized,” General Helou explains, especially as “the Saudis have expressed their readiness to finance Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority, even though he only represents a minority of Palestinians 47% compared to 53% who are considered pro-Hamas.”
Will the War Extend to Lebanon?
In response to the question of whether Hezbollah could become involved in the conflict, Helou explains, “It depends on Israel, which doesn’t wait for the evidence sought by the United States, and on the progress of the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which was on the verge of taking place.” He stresses that that “the Israeli State has not mobilized 360,000 reservists and lost approximately 1,500 Israelis in vain.” General Helou also adds, “It’s unclear how long Hamas will continue to bear the consequences of this offensive on its own.” According to him, the risk of the war spreading to Lebanon depends on “the danger that Hezbollah’s missiles represent for the Israeli security establishment.”
Nonetheless, a source close to this dossier, who was also interviewed by This is Beirut, refutes this scenario. According to him, “Hamas has engaged in maneuvers that undermine its cause, primarily through hostage-taking.” According to him, “These same maneuvers are hindering the escalation of this war.”
