Lebanon’s Shia Bloc and the Emigrant Vote Dilemma
Johnny Kortbawi 27/06 16:05 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Amal Hezbollah Diaspora Vote Elections Lebanon Shia
Lebanese emigrants have found themselves entangled in a crisis not of their making—namely, the existential crisis of the Shia community amid unfolding developments across the Middle East. Calls to amend the provision governing emigrant voting—whether by assigning them to Electoral District 16 or allowing them to vote for MPs in their home ...
Between the Christians of the Middle East and Tehran’s Judas
Johnny Kortbawi 24/06 10:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Iran Tehran Syria Damascus Christians
The 1994 bombing of Saydet al-Najat (or Our Lady of Deliverance Church) in Lebanon, given its historical weight and political context, remains a haunting reference point – almost a syndrome of its own. Like the Stockholm or London syndromes, the term “Our Lady of Deliverance Syndrome” is now invoked, especially by ...
Blind to the Fallout: Naïm Qassem’s Defiance
Johnny Kortbawi 20/06 13:50 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Iran Naim Qassem war
As the world holds its breath over the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, global powers are urging de-escalation, hoping to prevent a broader war with potentially nuclear consequences. In this tense context, Naim Qassem stands out for his defiance of caution. Even the United States—Israel’s closest ally—is proceeding carefully, wary of being ...
The Resistance Axis: More Fragile Than It Seems
Johnny Kortbawi 17/06 08:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Israel Middle East Palestine Tehran
A few months ago, a political activist mockingly coined the term “Rice Pudding Axis” to describe the so-called obstructionist axis, after a major part of it collapsed in Lebanon following Hezbollah’s military failure and eventual capitulation. Unable to hold its ground, the group was forced to sign a humiliating agreement that effectively ...
A Berlin Wall in the Middle East
Johnny Kortbawi 13/06 16:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Iran Israel Nuclear War United States
Israel’s strike on Iran marked a decisive rupture in modern Middle Eastern history—closing the chapter that began in 1979 and launching a new era in real time. October 7, 2023, was a pivotal moment for Israel, prompting a campaign of unrelenting confrontation against armed factions across the region—from Hamas to Hezbollah to the Houthis. ...
Instructions from the Al-Sahhaf Playbook
Johnny Kortbawi 10/06 11:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, Iraq’s former Minister of Information, became a global icon during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. His surreal press briefings - defiant, eloquent, and completely disconnected from reality - turned him into a legend of denial and spin. But Al-Sahhaf is no longer just a relic of Iraq’s past. He has become a mindset, a ...
Where Law Meets Anxiety
Johnny Kortbawi 06/06 17:20 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon is poised to enter a contentious and unpredictable debate ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, with disputes already emerging over the electoral law that will govern the vote. Tensions escalated after Speaker Nabih Berri rejected expatriate voting and called for a new electoral law, describing the current legislation as a ...
In Search of Lebanon’s Financial and Economic Taif Agreement
Johnny Kortbawi 03/06 18:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Banks Central Bank of Lebanon economy finance
Lebanon’s economic crisis cannot be measured solely by the six years since its visible eruption in September 2019. Its roots extend much further back—to 1992 and the first government formed after the Taif Agreement. This period marked the beginning of Lebanon’s modern economic policies, shaped by the country’s financial establishment with ...
End of the ‘Change Movement’ Illusion
Johnny Kortbawi 30/05 13:10 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
There are many lessons to be drawn from the recent municipal elections held in Lebanon. While it's true that municipal contests in villages and small towns are often shaped by family ties and local dynamics and thus cannot be taken as clear indicators of parliamentary elections, the reality in major cities cannot be ignored – cities that ...
Bidding War: Municipal Unions Up for Grabs
Johnny Kortbawi 27/05 14:10 - Reading : 4 minute(s)
Lebanon Elections FPM Michel Murr Metn Jezzine
When Michel Aoun returned from French exile in 2005, he arrived with sweeping slogans and the confidence of a man fully in control of his political momentum. This tone gradually diminished once he became the head of state. At the time, he championed stronger Christian representation and pushed the boundaries of the powers allotted to him under ...
When Emigrants Pay the Price of Exile
Johnny Kortbawi 23/05 20:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Amal Free Patriotic Movement Europe Hezbollah Kuwait
None of the emigrants chose to leave voluntarily. They left either in pursuit of education abroad or to find work that could provide them with economic stability and safety amid the wars in Lebanon. When the electoral law was amended to include expatriates in the actual voting process, enthusiasm soared, and in the last election, a quarter of a ...
Lebanon Reduced to the Scale of a Mukhtar
Johnny Kortbawi 20/05 15:50 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Donald Trump Hezbollah Israel Joseph Aoun Saudi Arabia
While Saudi Arabia was signing investment deals with the United States worth over $600 billion, and President Donald Trump was pursuing economic ventures exceeding $4 trillion to boost the global economy and forge new alliances, Lebanon was engaging in international politics on the scale of a mukhtar, a village chief. As developments began to ...
The Never-Ending Debate on the Independent Municipal Fund
Johnny Kortbawi 13/05 14:30 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Municipal elections Lebanon Municipal Fund Decentralization
In Lebanon, no conversation about municipal elections seems complete without mentioning the Independent Municipal Fund. Whether in political discourse or campaign rhetoric, the fund remains at the heart of debate—and controversy. Established with the noble aim of supporting municipalities and municipal federations, especially those with limited ...
The Sunni Leadership Problem...
Johnny Kortbawi 10/05 09:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon has witnessed three major nationwide Sunni leaderships since independence. The first was the leadership of Riad Al Solh, a pillar of the National Pact, independence, and Greater Lebanon after the French withdrawal. The second was Saeb Salam, the leading Sunni figure within Lebanon’s Chehabist political framework and beyond. He was known ...
The FPM: Once Upon a Time in Power
Johnny Kortbawi 06/05 09:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Municipal Elections Lebanon Free Patriotic Movement
Those close to the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) often exaggerate the party’s political victories. After the most recent parliamentary elections, they insisted for months that the FPM held the largest bloc, despite clear figures showing the Lebanese Forces (LF) had outperformed them. They maintained this narrative by portraying their entire bloc ...
Municipal Elections Set Stage for Legislative Showdown
Johnny Kortbawi 02/05 15:40 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Free Patriotic Movement Amal Hezbollah Lebanese Forces
The municipal elections, even indirectly, will have a significant impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections. Many of these coalitions may not endure, but they reveal how political actors are positioning themselves—not just in relation to their allies, but more tellingly, to their rivals. In Metn, the alliance between the Free Patriotic ...
Regional Messaging Between Israel and Iran
Johnny Kortbawi 29/04 13:45 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Israel Donald Trump Hezbollah Middle East Lebanon
The hands of the clock have frozen in the Middle East as the region waits out the deadline set by US President Donald Trump and his administration to conclude negotiations with Iran—before a potential military escalation that would decisively tip the balance in Israel’s favor. But everything unfolding in the region during this lull amounts to ...
A Story of Ill Will, Not Fair Representation
Johnny Kortbawi 26/04 11:45 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Beirut Municipalities Saad Hariri Nawaf Salam Elections
All hidden intentions have come to light, and the undeniable truth is now clear: some are unwilling to ensure equal representation in Beirut’s municipality, or at least are unwilling to uphold it. The real crisis lies in the absence of unified Sunni support in the city, compounded by the inability to provide a political umbrella in the capital ...
Beirut's Municipality: A Small-Scale Republic
Johnny Kortbawi 22/04 11:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Beirut’s municipality is, in truth, more than a municipal body, yet smaller than a republic. It is effectively a quasi-state, given the sheer number of people who enter the city each day for work or residence — a figure that amounts to nearly half of Lebanon’s population. More than 60 percent of the country’s registered vehicles also enter ...
From the Valley of the Saints to New York…
Johnny Kortbawi 18/04 08:30 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Nothing is more powerful than the text Gibran Khalil Gibran wrote in The Storms, titled “Jesus the Crucified.” With striking clarity, Gibran conveys a spiritual depth that the world so often overlooks on Good Friday. Many settle for church rituals—the procession of Christ or the burial rite—or treat it merely as a time to fast until ...
From Firepower to Billboards: The Evolution of "May 7"
Johnny Kortbawi 15/04 10:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah billboards airport road Lebanon
It’s striking how much Hezbollah’s projection of power has changed over the years. Once firmly gripping Lebanon’s state institutions, the party sought to assert dominance over the entire political spectrum—often by force. There was a time when Hezbollah stormed Beirut with weapons and fire, burned down the TV studios of its political ...
Does the State Belong to a Party or to Everyone?
Johnny Kortbawi 11/04 16:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Hezbollah central bank Lebanon
One of the biggest questions since the outbreak of the crisis in the fall of 2019 concerns the issue of determining responsibility for the losses that led to the default on payments, the suspension of external debt servicing and the freeze on deposits. In reality, the way one views the Lebanese economy is the main driver behind the different ...
The Enduring Allure of Foreign Guardianship in Lebanon
Johnny Kortbawi 08/04 09:30 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Morgan Ortagus Syria Iran Israel Hezbollah
Morgan Ortagus arrives in Beirut, exuding both elegance and diplomatic poise, with a hairstyle and presence that radiate charm and beauty. As a US presidential special envoy, she stands out in the context of Lebanese politics. Yet, in essence, she remains no different from her predecessors throughout Lebanon’s history, despite the distinct ...
Beirut Municipality: Parity and Coexistence Are Crucial
Johnny Kortbawi 04/04 11:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
The municipal elections can no longer be postponed, especially now that no party is willing to take the blame for another delay, regardless of the challenges. The main issue is the fragile balance of equal representation in the Beirut Municipality, which remains uncertain as efforts to preserve it continue. Rafic Hariri – and later his son – ...
The Municipal Elections Bazaar
Johnny Kortbawi 01/04 14:45 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Despite behind-the-scenes talks suggesting that some officials may be considering a quiet postponement of municipal and optional elections until at least September—in order to allow for greater political clarity and better adaptation to the evolving security situation in the south—the electoral momentum in Lebanon is already gaining intensity. ...
Gebran Bassil: Navigating His Political Exit Strategies
Johnny Kortbawi 29/03 09:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Gebran Bassil Free Patriotic Movement Lebanese Forces Baalbeck Hezbollah
Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of former President Michel Aoun, is hardly envied for his limited options, particularly with the upcoming parliamentary elections. He is growing increasingly concerned about the potential alliance between Majd Harb, son of former MP and Minister Boutros Harb, and the Lebanese Forces (LF) in Batroun, a partnership that ...
Political Gains Over Military Might
Johnny Kortbawi 25/03 16:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Hezbollah Amal Ali Hassan Khalil Elections
Lebanon has long been accustomed to generating contentious — and at times existential — debates. At any given time, discussions can emerge over a particular issue, starting as a legislative matter but quickly evolving into a national, constitutional, or even structural controversy. The latest example is the proposal to adopt a single electoral ...
Electoral Law Tinkering
Johnny Kortbawi 21/03 09:00 - Reading : 3 minute(s)
Lebanon has never held parliamentary elections without first revisiting its electoral law. The country stands out for its persistent search for voting systems that cater to the shifting political landscape and the interests of dominant parliamentary parties. While the Taif Agreement established governorates as electoral districts, the 1992 ...
Municipal Elections: The Cornerstone of Decentralization
Johnny Kortbawi 18/03 11:00 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Municipalities Elections Lebanon
Many fail to fully grasp the role and importance of municipal elections, which are largely regarded as little more than a routine event or a contest among families and relatives. Political parties further fuel these rivalries, especially in larger towns and villages, where they treat the poll and the local leaders as instruments to advance their ...
Diplomatic Opportunities
Johnny Kortbawi 14/03 11:46 - Reading : 2 minute(s)
Lebanon Hezbollah Israel Diplomacy
Former allies of Hezbollah are stepping forward, advocating for diplomacy rather than war to resolve the ongoing issues between Lebanon and Israel. This marks a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. In his latest interview on Sar El Waet with journalist Marcel Ghanem, MP Tony Frangieh spoke with a boldness rarely seen among ...