Lebanese history is marked by a long string of repeated missteps, errors that quietly pile up as the country resists any course correction. They’re the product of a persistent pattern of poor decisions, while entrenched political forces keep trying, in vain, to turn the tide in their favor.
Today, Lebanon is repeating a familiar mistake, one that US officials have long cautioned against, by failing to seize the opportunity to join the region’s broader momentum toward peace and disarmament. As the Middle East moves forward, Lebanon remains on the sidelines, making little effort to keep pace.
US presidential envoy Tom Barrack has issued repeated warnings, urging Lebanon to step back from the brink before history writes it off for yet another lost generation. But the country’s decision-makers remain silent, unmoved and unresponsive.
Lebanon’s first historic mistake came with the formation of Greater Lebanon. From the outset, tensions simmered between those who envisioned a nation confined within the Sykes-Picot borders, and those still attached to the ideal of Arab unity. It wasn’t until 1936 that visionary political leaders from Lebanon’s various communities came together to forge the foundations of the National Pact, an accord that would gradually steer the country toward independence. Yet, even then, both the West and the East rejected Lebanon’s legitimacy.
The second historic mistake came in 1958, when the spirit of the National Pact was first broken. Lebanon became divided, some were aligned with the Baghdad Pact and Western powers, others were drawn toward Nasser’s vision of Arab unity. This internal rift dealt a serious blow to the country's legitimacy and served as a rehearsal for the wars to come.
The third and perhaps most disastrous error was allowing Lebanon to be swept into the Palestinian project for an alternative state. In doing so, Lebanon became a launchpad for armed struggle and, ultimately, a battlefield for global rivalries. The country, pulled into the chaos of regional conflicts and the Cold War, was unavoidably on the brink of destruction.
The fourth and ongoing mistake has persisted since 2005. Lebanon failed to build the functional state that citizens had long demanded in the aftermath of the civil war. Rather than reinforcing the Taif Agreement, political leaders deliberately undermined it, chasing parallel deals rooted in sectarian power-sharing and driven by a relentless hunger for seats and quotas.
Now, Lebanon stands at yet another turning point. The ripple effects of October 7 have pushed war into its own borders. Yet, the country remains locked in flawed strategic thinking. Across the region, from Iraq to Egypt and beyond, maps are being redrawn, while Lebanon stands still, trapped in outdated calculations.
If the country fails to align with today’s shifting geopolitical reality, this latest mistake could prove existential. Lebanon risks losing not just stability or sovereignty, but its place in the regional equation altogether, held hostage by uncertainty in a global order that may simply forget it exists.
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