Both sides in Palestine can claim a form of victory from the negotiations that ended the war in Gaza. Palestinians may see their success in the delivery of humanitarian aid, the release of prisoners, the halt of attacks on the Strip and the prevention of plans mentioned in some statements to depopulate Gaza. Meanwhile, Israelis may view their main gains as the recovery of captives since October 7, the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a civilian authority in the Strip to neutralize the direct threat posed to them.
Beyond the points of the agreement and each side’s interpretation, it is essential to look past formalities to Israel’s deeper strategic objectives. Israel has succeeded in removing the pretext of resistance in the Gaza Strip, compelling Hamas to sign a minimal ceasefire that implicitly recognizes Israel as a sovereign state and undermines the justification for its resistance. Gaza has been fully disarmed, neutralizing any direct threat, while the West Bank no longer poses a danger under Jordanian and Arab guarantees.
In this context, the Palestinian threat to Israel has effectively ended, shifting attention to the northern threat, Hezbollah. Despite last year’s ceasefire and the halt of military operations, and despite Israel’s unrestrained response to any provocation, it is clear that Hezbollah remains a serious concern, demanding Israel’s full attention—unless it decides to directly confront the “head of the snake,” the ruling Iranian regime.
Therefore, Israel’s next front is likely to be Hezbollah or Iran, as it seeks to neutralize all surrounding threats and secure the peace it desires. For Netanyahu, it is clear that the peace he openly intends to impose by force will inevitably run through Lebanon. This represents the most critical phase in our history, a moment that could transform the region into a point of no return. The question for Lebanon is whether it will grasp the gravity of this reality and cooperate with the international community to prevent a bloodbath or persist in confronting the issue with a head-in-the-sand approach.
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