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3. Lebanon Has Another Opportunity of a Lifetime

As Lebanese, Israeli, and American teams prepare for their first-ever trilateral leaders summit, it is time to reflect on this opportunity and lessons from the past.
 
Most Lebanese have yearned for decades for a restoration of state sovereignty and peace. There are a host of reasons why they have been deprived of what most people around the globe take as a birth right; in recent decades, Iranian intimidation and use of Hezbollah as a proxy to assert power in the Levant have been the primary impediments. Iranian and Hezbollah overreach, the degradation of Hezbollah's leadership and power by the IDF, and the emergence of independence-minded leaders in Beirut have finally brought true sovereign control within reach. Lebanese state authorities, no longer under the shadow of Iranian intimidation, are prepared and able to have state-to-state talks with Israel. Their move is not a concession. It is an acknowledgement that a responsible state's first task is to secure the lives and livelihoods of its people as well as control over its sovereign land -- something Hezbollah, from its inception and on behalf of foreign interests, has prevented every previous government from doing.
 
There are real issues between Israel and Lebanon and a heavy burden of loss and emotion borne by both populations. By accepting President Trump's offer of a ceasefire and talks in Washington, both leaders are indicating their faith that differences can be overcome through dialogue, not fighting. They have a shared problem:  Iran and its use of Lebanese soil to advance Iranian, not Lebanese interests. The objective is to prevent Tehran from continuing to destroy the lives of Lebanese and Israelis alike and to develop the possibility of true peace. The effort will be neither easy nor straightforward. Hezbollah, directed by Iran, will impede it every step of the way. The leaders coming to Washington are taking real risks to realize the potential of this opportunity. President Aoun and Prime Minister Netanyahu -- who faces an election this year -- have already encountered criticism. They are wisely proceeding anyway.
 
 A few lessons come to mind from my diplomatic career:

 
For Israel: The post-October 7, 2023 mindset in Israel does not leave a lot of room for risk-taking. But this is a moment for Israel to examine carefully its long-term objectives and its enlightened self-interest, which, if attainable, rests in a functioning state of Lebanon that will secure its borders and territory. That has been the frame of many Israeli strategists, but the absence of a Lebanese state as a partner led Israelis to short-term, security-focused activities which inadvertently undercut Lebanese state authority and gave fuel to Hezbollah. The IDF's physical occupation of Lebanese territory will have predictable results. It may make Israelis in the north feel safer, but that will be an illusion. The greatest gift Israel could give Hezbollah is a long-term occupation, which would be used to justify the fiction of resistance and restore the support of their Shia base. The sooner the IDF can safely withdraw, the better. 
 
For Lebanon: There is a great deal of confidence in world capitals for President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam. With their political cover, the Lebanese Army should resume now the work of regaining the state monopoly of arms, with its phase two plan and the cabinet-backed conception for the Beirut capital. Action on those fronts will be the best way to demonstrate to skeptics that investing in the LAF is the right path forward. There is also a political task in front of the Lebanese, one which no outsider can tackle: ensuring that the Shia community sees that their future security, prosperity, and voice will be best served by loyalty to the state, not to a foreign-financed militia.       
 
For the U.S.: For decades, American officials have spoken of their desire to help restore Lebanese state sovereignty, but until recently did little to achieve it. Washington should stay fixed on that goal, but accelerate tangible military, political and economic assistance at this key moment. The LAF has been a strong partner for the United States for decades, and is the one state institution that is the source of pride and object of respect for most Lebanese. But we learned the hard way in the past year that to expect it alone to fast track disarmament of Hezbollah was unrealistic. The Lebanese must be the enforcers, but more proactive American efforts to help -- not just monitor events -- may be called for. And while the U.S. correctly seeks to disentangle the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel from Iran, the objective reality is such that continued American pressure on Iran to cease support for Hezbollah as a condition for a better relationship with the U.S. will be essential. Finally, there is an impression that global aid agencies are behind the curve in helping all Lebanese at this moment of crisis and filling the financial vacuum as Iran's presence in the south erodes. The U.S. has credible partners than can do the job. Investments to help them will be valuable if we are serious about stabilizing Lebanese sovereignty. Above all, Washington should stay the course -- remain persistent and engaged even as the crisis of the moment eases.  There are no short cuts to success in places like Lebanon.