Making Sense of Trump 2.0 and The Middle East

Elections matter. Only a few months ago, the Biden Administration struggled to assert its relevance amidst dramatic events in the Middle East. It had plenty to say, much of it contradictory, as it attempted to deal with the Democratic Party's split personality on Israel and the Palestinians while losing an election. The fragile ceasefires that ...

What Should America Do About Syria?

While Lebanese are focused intently on developments in Syria, the topic is absent in Washington. Yet what is happening there is one of the landmark geo-strategic developments of the Middle East of our times, the demise of a long-standing problematic regime for America and its friends and part and parcel of the reversal of fortunes of a major ...

It Is Time for Israeli-Lebanese Peace

A window for peace between Israel and Lebanon just unexpectedly opened. There was an old adage that "Lebanon will never be the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, but it won't be the last." Sadly, with Lebanese decisions dictated by the Assad family backed by Iran, that concept became obsolete. Since 1983, the Assads ensured that South ...

What Next?

So many Syrians and Lebanese are celebrating the downfall of the Assad regime, whose last decade of rule came courtesy of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The proximate cause of the final collapse is debatable; some attribute it to the inability of Russia to come to Assad's defense, while others cite Israel's decimation of Assad's Hezbollah ...

America, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon

Most American presidents avoid plunging into Middle East peacemaking as long as possible. There were two exceptions: Bill Clinton started in his first month with a "Syria First" strategy for peace between Israel and its neighbors. Barak Obama on his "day two" launched a respected envoy to pursue a West Bank settlement freeze and two-state ...

What Successful Diplomacy Looks Like

One of the things to know about ceasefires is they don't just happen because an American leader wants one, or because there is a piece of paper in circulation in New York labeled "ceasefire."  Unless an outside power is prepared to impose a ceasefire by force, it happens when the parties to a conflict no longer believe they can achieve their ...

America and the World in 2025 if Trump Is Elected

America's presidential election is too close to call. It may be useful today to examine what a Trump victory might mean for foreign policy. Later, we can examine prospects for a Harris foreign policy -- whenever she says enough to assess. When speculating about the direction of foreign policy under Trump 2.0, keep in mind three elements of ...

Reality and Illusion

The people of the Middle East, particularly Lebanese, Israelis, Palestinians, and their near neighbors are understandably living on a knife's edge of uncertainty about what's next ever since the killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024. It was a humiliation for the Iranians to have an honored terrorist guest assassinated in a ...

A Season of Elections - But How Much Change?

The Lebanese people are no strangers to political violence and assassinations, sadly. Nor are the American people, even if our experience is less frequent or systematic. One advantage we have is that we remain a nation of institutions, capable of doing what is essential at moments like this -- credible, impartial, and transparent investigations ...

For Israel and Lebanon, the Most Dangerous Period Looms 

There is conventional wisdom held in some quarters that the risk of a full-blown war between Hezbollah and Israel will begin to recede if and when the conflict between Israel and Hamas reaches a ceasefire or end state. If only it were so simple. It is true that Hezbollah leaders assert they will continue the fight they joined on October 8, 2023, ...

Timing Is Everything

Persistence is a key element in successful diplomacy - persistence in the face of adversity, persistence in applying pressure, and persistence in standing by allies and friends. That quality is distinct from Freud's definition of insanity, that is, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.  In the 1990s, sometime ...

Is Washington's Brain Fog Lifting?

Small powers can rarely indulge in national security self-delusion. The potentially existential cost of such luxury is simply too high. It is a different matter for great powers, which can carry on in willful contradiction of national interests, obvious threats, and plain facts for some time before reality intrudes. Since October 7, 2023, ...

Ending the Hezbollah-Israel War

International attention is focused on how to bring a ceasefire and at some stage an end to the fighting between Hamas and Israel. This focus is only natural given the state of affairs in Gaza and Israel's war aims there, despite the obvious orchestration of regional attacks on Israeli, American, and global interests by Iranian proxies. However, ...

Learning from American Diplomacy toward Lebanon

As America and its allies grapple with the conflict in the Middle East, a study of history can help American policymakers learn from their predecessors' successes and failures. Because Lebanon is a microcosm of the Middle East, the past conduct of American diplomacy there offers a wealth of experience to help guide Washington through the current ...

Memorandum to the Biden Administration: Lebanon

The arrival of a new American ambassador in Beirut can mark a new style in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy there. However, it is good to remember that policies are set in Washington, not at embassies. As the talented new American ambassador, Lisa Johnson, settles in, it is an opportune moment to consider how the team in Washington should ...

Adjusting to New Realities

One of the harder things in foreign affairs, as in life, is dealing with new realities. Successful statecraft entails identifying new realities and equipping policies to protect and advance national interests in that light. An inability to adjust strategies in the face of new realities is an indicator of impending failure. The tragedy experienced ...