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3. Israeli Escalation Envisioned: Timing Hinges on Multiple Factors

The Israelis have not ruled out intensifying their military strikes against Hezbollah across Lebanon. However, according to available information, they are closely monitoring three key issues: the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and Hamas’ compliance, the latest developments in the confrontation with Iran, and US policy decisions regarding Lebanon.

In this context, sources indicate that the Americans and Israelis regularly inform the Lebanese side that any presence of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon must be completely eliminated with no compromise on the matter. They emphasize that achieving this objective must either be the responsibility of the Lebanese state or carried out through an Israeli military operation, the timing of which has not yet been determined.

According to available reports, Israeli and American hardline positions toward Lebanon have remained consistent since the ceasefire in November 2024. Meanwhile, the French, through their work in the committee overseeing the ceasefire, known as “mechanism,” generally align with the Israelis, putting forward proposals that reflect both American and Israeli interests.

Reports indicate that the Israelis are bringing maps of towns and villages to the mechanism meetings, marking homes and civilian facilities they claim contain Hezbollah weapons. They are reportedly demanding that the Lebanese army take action against these sites; otherwise, the locations would be targeted by Israeli strikes. The Lebanese army, however, faces significant challenges in addressing this issue, as these homes and facilities are on private property. Raiding them requires judicial authorization, which is often slow or reluctant. The army cannot act unilaterally and place itself in direct confrontation with families affiliated with Hezbollah.

Sources indicate that, despite the tense security situation, the Lebanese army continues its operations south of the Litani, removing weapons and ammunition, and dismantling military infrastructure without any tip or help from Hezbollah. The army relies on its own search and survey efforts, supplemented by intelligence provided by the ceasefire monitoring committee and UNIFIL.