As Israel engages with Hamas militants in Gaza, cross-border exchanges between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have been increasing. However, it raises the question of whether the pro-Iranian formation truly intends to enter into open conflict with Israel.
Hamas militants stormed into Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians, according to Israeli officials.
Israel’s retaliatory bombing campaign has killed more than 5,000 Palestinians, mainly civilians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
As Israel and Hezbollah trade near-daily cross-border fire, we look at the group’s support for Hamas, its capabilities and whether the Shiite movement really seeks to open a new front against Israel from southern Lebanon.
Why Does Hezbollah Support Hamas?
Since the Hamas attack, tit-for-tat cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah has been relatively contained, part of a delicate balancing act at the border.
Some 41 people have been killed on the Lebanese side, mostly combatants but including four civilians, one of them Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah.
Four people have been killed in Israel, including three soldiers and one civilian.
Hezbollah and Sunni group Hamas have long been part of a “joint operations room” that includes the Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a source close to Hezbollah previously told press agencies on condition of anonymity.
Michael Young from the Carnegie Middle East Center said Hezbollah supported Hamas because ideologically they are “on the same wavelength in their opposition to Israel”.
The “axis of resistance” has always tried to highlight that it is not simply a Shiite arrangement, he said, and “Hamas plays a significant role in giving this a cross-sectarian identity”.
“Hamas is at the heart of the Palestinian issue, which is very much part of Hezbollah and Iran’s revolutionary identity,” Young added.
What Are Hezbollah’s Capabilities?
Hezbollah is a prominent paramilitary player, with a wide arsenal including guided missiles tens of thousands of trained fighters.
Tehran provides Hezbollah with financial and military support, while neighboring Syria, where the group has been fighting on the side of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime for years, facilitates the transfer of weapons.
However, experts and reports say the group has positions, hideouts and tunnels in the area, whose territory its members know intimately.
In October 2021, Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah said his group had 100,000 armed fighters at its disposal, and the movement benefits from popular support in southern Lebanon.
For years, Nasrallah has boasted that his group’s weapons could reach deep into Israeli territory.
In August 2023, he said it would take just “a few high-precision missiles” for Hezbollah to destroy Israeli targets including “civilian and military airports, airbases, power stations” and the Dimona nuclear facility.
Will Hezbollah Go Further?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Hezbollah would make “the mistake of its life” if it started a war with Israel.
Analysts previously told the media that an escalation could hinge on an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza.
Imad Salameh, a political analyst from the Lebanese American University, said Hezbollah could escalate its attacks but also “doesn’t want to distract attention from the ongoing conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis”.
Carnegie’s Young said Hezbollah’s activities aimed to draw Israeli forces away from Gaza so their military push “would be stalled or thwarted”.
“Alternatively, they (Hezbollah) want to create such fear of a regional conflagration that there will be pressure at the United Nations, maybe this time supported by the United States, to call for a ceasefire,” he added.
Both Young and Salameh expressed doubt that Iran would let Hezbollah enter into full-blown confrontation with Israel simply to ease pressure on Hamas.
“I don’t think that Iran wants to sacrifice Hezbollah, and I don’t think it considers this a necessity,” Young said.
“Hezbollah can enter the battle within a certain contained limit,” he concluded.
Khalil Wakim, with AFP
