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Since October 8, Lebanon, a struggling country, has been at war. Only the army remains steadfast, facing challenges despite the intrigue surrounding the fate of its command.
The Special Envoy of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, has just concluded his fourth visit to Beirut since June. He delivered three messages to the Lebanese people: the importance of restraint in South Lebanon on both sides of the border, the irresponsibility of changing the army’s leadership in these circumstances, and the need for the war in Gaza to act as a catalyst to unblock the presidential deadlock and all the institutional impasses caused by the leadership vacuum.
The former French Minister of Foreign Affairs reiterated his call to Lebanese officials to find a “third option” and agree on a candidate other than Jihad Azour, who is backed by the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and other than Sleiman Frangieh, who is supported by Hezbollah and Amal.
According to sources closely monitoring Le Drian’s visits, the situation is clear: France and the rest of the Group of Five (including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) are in sync and agree on the need to keep General Joseph Aoun at the helm of the regular forces. For them, refusing to extend the mandate of General Aoun, who will reach the official retirement age in just over a month, would be irresponsible and unrealistic.
It’s also a matter of security for France, which contributes 700 troops to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and operates in coordination with the Lebanese army in South Lebanon.
The international support expressed for Joseph Aoun doesn’t seem to be limited to his role as army chief, considering the “very diplomatic” explanations given regarding the importance of keeping him in his position. In all these explanations, the word “trust” is persistently emphasized, especially when a diplomat is asked about a possible correlation between an extension of the commander’s term and the presidential elections.
Jean-Yves Le Drian was very clear about the military during his various political meetings in Beirut on Wednesday and Thursday, especially with FPM leader Gebran Bassil, who believes that his political survival is tantamount to Joseph Aoun’s removal.
The meeting between the two men on Thursday was very brief and tense. According to certain sources, the French envoy simply explained to Gebran Bassil that he was the only one opposing an extension of the army commander’s term, and that there were so many disagreements in their conversation that it was better to cut it short. This situation further isolates the son-in-law of former President Michel Aoun, who approaches politics solely through the lens of personal interests, is abhorred by a majority of the population and Western embassies, and is under US sanctions for corruption.
Joseph Aoun is supported both internationally and nationally. Even Hezbollah, usually known for its obstructive stances for over 15 years, would not prevent the extension of his term. According to information obtained by This Is Beirut, if the extension of Joseph Aoun’s term is put to a vote in the Council of Ministers or Parliament, the pro-Iranian faction would abstain from voting. Such an abstention would allow them to maintain their fragile link with the FPM (the two parties, contested and isolated locally, need each other), but still ensure the required quorum for the vote.
Bassil knows that a leadership vacuum in the army poses a risk to the country, and it’s impossible to appoint a new commander in chief in the absence of a president. Nevertheless, he continues to push ahead. On Friday, caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Slim, close to the FPM leader, stated that delaying Joseph Aoun’s retirement “is not allowed, by the Defense law.” These remarks were made after a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai. It is a pretext for the FPM to keep Joseph Aoun out of the picture.
According to information obtained by This Is Beirut, Paris, through Le Drian, felt that Lebanese officials are aware of the urgency of the situation. Even Hezbollah doesn’t want to risk leaving the army without a leader.
Simultaneously, in response to whether the Group of Five’s push to retain General Aoun in his position could be interpreted as a step towards his election as head of state – as he is considered one of the most serious candidates to succeed Michel Aoun – Western diplomatic sources indicate, “It is important that the person chosen by the Lebanese to lead the country inspires confidence and is worthy of that trust. He must be able to address all the necessary tasks for Lebanon’s recovery.” Earlier, these sources emphasized the trust that the army and its leadership inspire.
Joseph Aoun, whether appreciated or not, is the right man to hold the command reins. Whether in Yarzeh (as Army chief) today, or maybe in Baabda (the presidential palace) tomorrow, he is bolstered by the confidence he garners both locally and internationally.
