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While there is a consensus among all Lebanese parties to avert a leadership vacuum in the military, which would occur with the retirement of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun on January 10, there is a divergence of opinions regarding the best approach to dealing with the issue.
The raging conflict between Hamas and Israel has prompted officials to “set things in motion,” especially since the position of Chief of Staff, responsible for filling in during leadership vacancies in the military, has been vacant since last December. The process has, however, not yet gained significant momentum.
Four Options
There are, in fact, four options worth considering:
– The initial approach entails filling the vacant positions within the military council, the governing body accountable for making decisions within the armed forces. These positions encompass the Chief of Staff of the Army, which is generally delegated to a Druze officer, as well as the positions of Inspector General, entrusted to a Greek Orthodox, and Director General of Administration, held by a Shiite.
These appointments, which were made by the Council of Ministers, are intended to complete the composition of the military council that surrounds the Commander of the Army. Under this scenario, even if General Joseph Aoun were to retire, the Chief of Staff, who holds the second-highest position within the military institution, would assume the interim role.
A precedent exists for such a situation. Former Chief of Staff, General Chawki el-Masri, had assumed the interim leadership of the Army following the election of then Commander-in-chief Michel Sleiman as President of the Republic in 2008, before the appointment of General Jean Kahwaji to succeed him.
Gen. Hassane Audi is currently considered to fill the position of chief of staff. It is believed that he has received the endorsement of the Progressive Socialist Party, and as a result, he may potentially succeed Amin el-Orm, who resigned on December 24 last year.
– Another option is postponing the retirement of several officers, including General Joseph Aoun. The Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers has been entrusted with the responsibility of formulating a draft law in this regard.
– Third, extending the tenure of General Joseph Aoun. It is noteworthy to mention that a former Army Commander, General Jean Kahwaji, was granted an extension of his tenure by the former Minister of Defense, Samir Mokbel, when Tamam Salam headed the caretaker government during the presidential vacancy from 2014 to 2016.
– Fourth, appointing a new Army Commander. The Council of Ministers has the potential to assume this responsibility upon the recommendation of the Minister of Defense.
However, these four options face a significant challenge due to the resistance of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The main obstacle lies in Caretaker Minister of Defense Maurice Slim’s strong affiliation with the Aounist party.
This party, particularly its leader, Gebran Bassil, is steadfast in its commitment to “enforcing the law,” which mandates that the highest-ranking officer within the military council assumes an interim leadership role in the event of the Army Commander’s absence. In this particular instance, the officer in question is Pierre Saab, a Greek-Catholic who is closely associated with the FPM.
The Aounist movement asserts that the same principle applied in the Central Bank (BDL), following the departure of Governor Riad Salameh, and in the General Security Directorate, after the exit of Director General Abbas Ibrahim, should be upheld in the case of the military. In both cases, interim leadership was provided in strict compliance with the Constitution and the law in force.
That’s the legal explanation. Nonetheless, the underlying political motive behind the FPM’s position is blatant. As per political sources, Bassil’s aspiration entails the appointment of one of his dependable associates as the commander of the Army. However, his primary objective is to exclude General Joseph Aoun from the Army leadership and the presidential run-off.
If Joseph Aoun were to remain in charge of the Army, his chances of securing the presidency would greatly improve, while Bassil’s chances of reaching the presidency would diminish, both now and in the future.
Opposing Joseph Aoun’s Command
As per the sources mentioned previously, Bassil is prepared to go to great lengths to prevent the election of the Army Commander, and he would even prefer to see Sleiman Frangieh, the Hezbollah-backed leader of the Marada movement, assume office in Baabda. In fact, during his recent tour of various political figures and blocs, he explicitly expressed his readiness to collaborate with the former Zgharta MP. In parallel, he has expressed considerable criticism against Joseph Aoun, accusing him of opening the land borders to Syrian displaced people, allowing them to enter Lebanon, and closing the maritime borders to prevent them from leaving instead of taking the opposite approach.
The matter of the vacant position in the Army leadership was also raised between Bassil and Sleiman Frangieh at their meeting on Wednesday. Both men expressed their opposition to extending General Joseph Aoun’s mandate.
Consultation Meeting
The FPM’s unwavering stance on Joseph Aoun was unambiguous, and the developments that transpired during Wednesday’s ministerial consultation at the Grand Serail held great significance.
Upon arriving at the Serail, Minister of Defense Maurice Slim was visibly upset and engaged in a tense discussion with Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. It is noteworthy that Slim had, in fact, visited the Serail to express his strong disapproval of the letter he had received from Mikati. In this correspondence, he was tasked with proposing a candidate for the position of Army Commander, extending General Joseph Aoun’s tenure, or suggesting officers’ names to fill vacancies within the Military Council. As per both the Constitution and the law governing the Higher Defense Council, these duties fall under the prerogative of the Minister of Defense.
Although Slim declined to attend the meeting, several other ministers from the FPM were present, including Minister of Justice Henry Khoury, Minister of Social Affairs Hector Hajjar, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib.
Later that evening, Slim criticized the tone employed in the Prime Minister’s letter and expressed reservations about Mikati’s choice to share copies of the correspondence with Minister Khoury and the Army Command.
Composure and Prudence
Considering the circumstances, it is imperative to approach the situation with a sense of “composure and prudence” to prevent a leadership vacuum within the military. This message was conveyed by Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in a statement issued after their meeting on Thursday in Ain el-Tineh.
Will the solution come from the government, as previously outlined, or from Parliament, through the presentation of a bill to postpone the retirement of many officers by one year?
According to parliamentary sources, it appears that resolving the matter within Parliament is a more feasible option and that even opposition blocs would support legislation to prevent a leadership void. However, other sources emphasize the government’s responsibility regarding this matter.
“We still have ample time, and we are actively seeking the most optimal solution that is both agreeable and in accordance with the Constitution,” reported various sources. Regardless, a solution will be implemented before the retirement of General Joseph Aoun, thereby guaranteeing the continuity of leadership within the Army.
