- 11
- Apr.
- 2026
As Iran and the U.S. begin negotiations in Islamabad while Israel continues its military campaign in Lebanon, analysts say Tehran is prioritizing its own interests over those of its proxy, Hezbollah.
“Iran has its priorities as a state,” political analyst Ali al-Amine told This is Beirut. “Today, its main interest is to avoid a large, decisive U.S. strike and prevent a new war on its territory.
After a ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran took effect on April 8, the Israeli military carried out its largest wave of strikes on Beirut since the start of the war. Heavy fighting, meanwhile, has continued along the border, where Israel is conducting a widespread ground campaign against Hezbollah.
While Tehran has insisted that any ceasefire deal include Lebanon, Israel has confined its commitment to halting fire with Iran, maintaining that its military operations against Hezbollah are a separate track. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is ready to begin negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible.”
“Hezbollah assumed it would be part of a broader regional deal, but instead it paid a heavy price, including the loss of key leaders,” American University of Beirut history professor Makram Rabah said.
Negotiating Ploy
Iran’s push to include Lebanon in the regional ceasefire appears to be more of a negotiating tool than a core condition, analysts say, arguing that Tehran would accept Hezbollah continuing to face Israeli fire.
Iran likely entered the negotiations knowing that Lebanon would remain outside any formal ceasefire framework, according to Amine, the founder of the Janoubia outlet.
“The real question is whether Iran obtained guarantees from Israel on Lebanon before entering the talks. The answer is probably no,” he explained. “This suggests Tehran was never serious about including Lebanon and had other priorities.”
Amine argued that Iran views Hezbollah as a proxy whose fate does not directly shape its strategic decision-making. Had Tehran truly viewed Hezbollah as inseparable from its strategic interests, he said, it would have responded militarily to Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon after the regional ceasefire took effect.
“But striking Hezbollah is not the same as striking Iran, in Tehran’s eyes,” Amine said, adding that Tehran no longer sees the militant group as essential for its defense.
Rabah shares a similar assessment, arguing that Iran has a consistent pattern of prioritizing its own strategic survival over its regional allies.
“I am almost certain that Iran entered these negotiations fully aware that Hezbollah would not be part of the deal,” Rabah said, explaining that Tehran does not prioritize Lebanon.
“Iran uses Lebanon to keep Israel occupied, but its main concern is the survival of the regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),” he said.
Rabah added that the absence of serious discussions between Tehran and Washington on a Lebanon ceasefire ahead of the Islamabad talks reflects this dynamic.
“There is no real push from Iran to stop the fighting in Lebanon. From their perspective, Hezbollah can continue low-level attacks, even one rocket a day, to maintain pressure and narrative leverage.”
Pressure Through Diplomacy
Israel’s announcement that it is prepared to hold direct talks with Lebanon, centered on Hezbollah’s disarmament and the establishment of peaceful ties with Beirut, signaled a shift from a purely military campaign to a political strategy aimed at isolating Hezbollah.
“Negotiating under fire, with disarmament as a condition, puts Hezbollah in its weakest political position yet,” Amine said. “This is the result of [Hezbollah’s] failed military and political strategies.”
Amine added that any ceasefire talks would be conducted directly by the Lebanese state with Israel, instead of being brokered by Iran at a regional level.
Meanwhile, Rabah explained that Israel was leveraging its military position to shift to diplomatic efforts in Lebanon. “Netanyahu now has the upper hand militarily and is moving to the diplomatic phase,” he said.
“By framing the conflict as one against Iranian elements rather than Lebanon, Israel is trying to strip the Lebanon file from Iran.”
As Lebanese and Israeli diplomats prepare to meet in Washington next week for direct talks, Hezbollah faces mounting pressure on both the military and political fronts, while Iran appears increasingly focused on its own strategic interests.
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