Israel appears poised to dramatically expand its invasion in southern Lebanon, with troops pushing deeper into the country as officials increasingly adopt rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone.
On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told local officials in northern Israel that the military was working to expand a “security zone to push the anti-tank threat away from our communities and our territory.”
The day before, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Jerusalem aims to establish a “security zone” between the Blue Line demarcating its northern border and the Litani River in southern Lebanon.
Katz signaled that this buffer zone would be depopulated. “Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who evacuated northward will not return south of the Litani River until security for the residents of the north is ensured,” he said.
As Israel presses forward with ground fighting in southern Lebanon, coupled with escalating rhetoric about establishing a buffer zone, a key question has emerged over its long-term intentions, whether it plans to undertake an extended occupation of Lebanese territory or withdraw once its current campaign against Hezbollah ends.
A Bargaining Chip
Israel’s expanded ground invasion in southern Lebanon aims to use an occupied “security zone” as a bargaining chip to increase its leverage over the status of Hezbollah in Lebanon, retired Israel Defense Forces (IDF) brigadier general Assaf Orion told This is Beirut.
Orion, a fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Jerusalem seeks “to create for itself the conditions to decide whether to stay, whether to go forward, whether to withdraw, under which security arrangements, in which conditions it would be made.”
Israeli officials indicate they intend to reprise their strategy from the Gaza war, where Israel does not plan to withdraw until Hamas disarms. Katz said Israel would maintain a “security zone” in southern Lebanon until it considers its security concerns over Hezbollah resolved.
Meanwhile, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “just as we control 55% of Gaza, we should do the same in Lebanon.”
While Israeli officials appear to be advancing the objective of establishing a buffer zone for now, the IDF does not necessarily have a clear or immediate long-term plan for its presence in southern Lebanon.
By having an open-ended approach toward Lebanon, Israel aims for a “more flexible situation than a mechanical engineering plan,” Orion stated.
Israel’s options range from limited, targeted operations against Hezbollah to a full occupation south of the Litani River. For now, it appears to be preserving strategic flexibility to determine its long-term policy at a later stage while pursuing the disarmament of Hezbollah directly and on its own terms.
In the short term, Israel sees a need to directly intervene against Hezbollah on Lebanese territory. Beyond that, it may seek to use the areas it occupies as a bargaining chip in negotiations over a security arrangement with Lebanon that could “prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence without a direct Israeli presence,” Orion said.
Prospects for Diplomacy?
Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, have conveyed their openness to negotiating directly with Israel to achieve a mutually agreed-upon security arrangement. However, Israeli officials have yet to take them up on their offer.
“There is a space for diplomacy… but for the time being Hezbollah has to be addressed and de-escalation doesn’t serve that,” Orion said.
Even prior to Hezbollah’s opening of a military front from Lebanon on March 2 in support of Iran, Israeli officials had expressed skepticism over the pace and process of Beirut’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
While Lebanon in January declared that its military had completed disarmament operations south of the Litani, Hezbollah’s intensifying military operations against Israel have raised questions about Beirut’s credibility.
From the Israeli point of view, the Lebanese state “has a credibility issue because they were already committed and hadn’t delivered,” Orion said.
He added that Israel views the need for “some kind of direct approach” using the IDF, saying that “Hezbollah reconstitutes faster than it’s being disarmed or attacked.”
Israel’s zero-tolerance approach toward any Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon, or the group maintaining its capabilities, is a key factor shaping its policy toward Lebanon. Orion said that from Israel’s perspective, the alternative to complete Hezbollah disarmament is “going to war.”
“The Israeli approach is not rebuffing diplomacy altogether but seeing it as a complementary element to military action,” he said.
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